WEEK 15, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 1; Right - 4 = 80%
The Pick	The Result
(1A) Sheridan 35, Rockville 7	Correct... Sheridan 34, Rockville 28
(2A) Bishop Luers 28, Heritage Christian 24	Correct... Bishop Luers 21-6
(3A) Bishop Chatard 21, St. Joseph's 14	Correct... Bishop Chatard 31-7
(4A) Lowell 30, (Evansville) Reitz 21	Wrong... Reitz 33-14
(5A) Carmel 35, Pike 14	Correct... Carmel 16-7

The Title Games - WEEK 15 (Fifteen) Recap - Nov. 23-24, 2007:

INDIANAPOLIS -  Reitz surprised me with their defense in the 4A state finals against Lowell.  I didn't think they would be quite that effective against the run.  They did not show any of that in one-point regional and semistate victories.  Usually when you pick games you have a lot to go on, but in retrospect, I knew nothing about the 4A game.  No past history.  No common opponents.  And the distance between the two schools made any analysis pretty much guesswork.  That showed in a pick that could not have been much further off.

The other four state title games all went to the favored teams.  I would like to see Sheridan play a 'specially scheduled' game against someone like Bishop Chatard or Bishop Luers to get some indication of exactly how good they are.  Despite a 36-game winning streak and three consecutive state titles, they don't look invincible indoors on the artificial turf.  That may be misleading.  They dominate outdoors in cold November weather.

Class 2A No. 9 Bishop Luers (11-4) allowed only 50 points in four state playoff games.  Luers looked very good stopping one of the state's top passing attacks from Heritage Christian.  The Luers Knights are a young team that should hold the No. 1 ranking for much of the 2008 season.

3A No. 2 Bishop Chatard (12-3) won its second consecutive title and fifth in seven years.  The schedule helped here.  Chatard played two out of state teams and four 4A Indiana schools.  I'm waiting for someone from Northwest Indiana to challenge Chatard, but it may be a long wait.  The Trojans won the state title averaging just 27 points a game.  That's low for a champion.  Reitz averaged 40 points a game. Sheridan averaged 42.0.

Carmel's win over Pike completed a 'full circle' run by the Greyhounds, who lost the 2006 state 5A title game to four-time champ Warren Central.  Carmel's not going to win four consecutive 4A titles because odds are very good that Carmel will be part of the new Class 6A in 2009.

To pick 73% during the regular season, when you are ignoring all mismatches, is good, but it should be 75-80%.  As I've said many times, anybody who is picking above 80% isn't picking only competitive games.  The best barometer is the post-season, where you must pick the games that are there.

In the final 15 games (semistate and state finals), 11 of 15  is not the 80% I'd hoped for and I still blame those freaky Reitz boys who should have been eliminated by Cathedral at the semistate.

The crystal ball officially goes into the closet until next August, but it's good to know it still works.  Anybody who makes predictions hears a lot about the ones they get wrong, but I can't hide my selections and my reasoning.  It's all here and that 72 of 91 in the post-season is clearly the highlight.

2007 (Week 1)  8 of 13   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 2)  8 of 11   =  72.7%
2007 (Week 3)  8 of 12   =  66.7%
2007 (Week 4)  10 of 11   =  90.9%
2007 (Week 5)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 6)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 7) 10 of 10  =  100.0%
2007 (Week 8)  6 of 10  =  60.0%
2007 (Week 9)  9 of 10  =  90.0%

Playoffs
2007 (week 10) 23 of 28   =  82.1%
2007 (week 11)  12 of 16  =  75.0%
2007 (week 12)  12 of 16  =  75.0%
2007 (week 13)  14 of 16   =  87.5%
2007 (week 14)  7 of 10  =    70.0%
2007 (week 15)  4 of 5  =    80.0%


2007 (regular season)  71 of 97 = 73.2%
2007 (playoffs)  72 of 91 = 79.5%
2007 (overall) 143 of 188 = 76.0%

2006 (final) OVERALL :  166 of 217 = 76.4% 
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

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2007-08 IHSAA Football - 35th Annual State Tournament Series

Scoreboard Summary:  http://www.ihsaa.org/b-football/2007-08/0708Scoreboard.htm

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