Week 1 Picks:  2006 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

August 16, 2006

WEEK (1) ONE (8-18-2006)   I can't swear to this, but Indiana starts high school football almost before anyone else in the nation.  Folks in other states are shocked we play real live games in early to mid-August and then you explain our 'Flintstone-era" all-inclusive playoff system that requires six weeks of playoffs.  There is no other high school sport where the state tournament is almost as long as the regular season.  The early start may contribute to  mid-season reversal teams like Northwood and Lowell winning state titles in 2005.  In 2001 Bishop Chatard was 0-3 and came back to win the state title.  In 2002, Bishop Luers was 0-2 and 3-3 before winning the state crown.  Those comebacks are less amazing when you remember that the season starts in the middle of the summer.

No one admits its broken so they don't fix it and we start the season before class starts in many places. That hurts small schools and you keep that in mind in week one.

Among the schools that will wish the season began a week later:  

Top games send 3A defending state champion Northwood to defending 2A state champ Jimtown in Elkhart.  Powerhouse Indianapolis Cathedral returns 16 starters and they'll need them all when they open at 5A power Carmel.  2A Western Boone has 15 returning starters in uniform for the game at 1A No. 1 Sheridan and 1,800-yard rushing QB Nick Zachary (6-2, 180).  The team to watch state wide has a familiar name.  Bishop Chatard has 18 returning starters off a 12-3 team that lost in the state finals.   And new 5A school Fishers, which was created after fast-growing 3,000-kid Hamilton Southeastern split, plays its first football game in its second life (Fishers was the predecessor to Southeastern as well) at home against Noblesville.  Fishers' old coach is the Merrillville coach of the early 90s, Rick Wimmer.

WEEK 15, 2005 Football Picks in Review:

Wrong - 2; Right - 3 = 60.0%
The Pick The Result
(1A) Sheridan 31,  Knightstown  21 CORRECT... Sheridan (13-2) 21, Knightstown (14-1) 7
(2A) Jimtown 28, North Posey 7 CORRECT... Jimtown (14-1) 35, North Posey (12-3) 7
(3A) Bishop Chatard  35, Northwood 9 WRONG... Northwood (9-6) 7,  Bishop Chatard (12-3) 0
(4A) Roncalli (12-2) 28, Lowell  (10-4) 16 WRONG... LOWELL (11-4)  28, Roncalli (12-3) 27
(5A) Warren Central (13-1) 51, Hamilton Southeastern (11-3)  21 CORRECT... Warren Central (14-1)  55,  Hamilton Southeastern (11-4) 20

STATE FINALS ANALYSIS & RECAP:   Two of the biggest upsets in recent history made the 2005 state finals unpredictable.  Northwood was able to shut out Chatard, the first time in eight state finals games that Chatard has lost.  Northwood, which won for the first time in five state title games, won with rookie QB Skyler Titus who has made his prep career with three years left.  But that surprise was dwarfed by Lowell's unexplainable rally from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit to take out the 'Godfather' of Indiana high school football, eight-time champ and three-time defending champ Roncalli, trying to become Indiana's first four-peat champ.  In the 20 years I have watched Indiana high school football, that is the greatest post-season upset I have ever seem.

Now the ball drops to Warren Central, which tries to become the first Indiana team ever to win four titles in a row, while small-school superpower Sheridan, a seven-time champ, tries to tie Roncalli's state record of eight rings.

WEEK 15 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 15: 3 of 5 = 60%
(final) PLAYOFFS:  70 of 96 = 72.9%
2005 (final) REGULAR SEASON: 100 of 137 = 72.9%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana - 2006

MERRILLVILLE – The focus is on Merrillville, which might not have as much total talent as they did in 2004 but is more experienced at key positions. Only three DAC teams return their starting QBs in 2005 (LaPorte, CP and Merrillville) and one of them (Crown Point) lost their quarterback for the season in the scrimmage game. Casual observers would say that nobody has anybody like James Aldridge of the Pirates but LaPorte has Airrence Shark, who may roll up similar yardage. The most fun will be had if senior Kyle Yelton wins the quarterback job at Chesterton and has to face his father, Merrillville varsity coach Jeff Yelton.

In Class 4A, two more Hobart-Lowell Top-10 slugfests seem to be coming late in the season. Griffith is a big favorite in 3A but Andrean will get two chances for an upset.

North Judson (31-8 in 3 years) and Rensselaer (45-23 in 6 years) are set for two more grudge matches in Class 2A, but Wheeler can hope for a favorable draw and the chance to catch the winner on the rebound.

Whiting won't be helped by a soft schedule (everybody in the LAC Blue gave up 24 or more points per game in 2004 and new foe Riley is 6-35 in the last four years), but they should be playing in the regional title game in November.

WEEK 1 (ONE) PICKS, 8-18-2006

Games I will not pick out of respect to all concerned:  Merrillville-East Chicago.  Griffith-Lew Wallace and Gary Roosevelt-Michigan City.  Let the winners win, the losers not get hurt, and we'll see you all in two weeks.

 

Goshen 20, Lake Central 14

ST. JOHN  - Lake Central and Goshen match up in a battle of teams that both return two thirds of their squads from 2005. LC QB PJ Gibur (5-10, 160) will have to throw against a larger Goshen squad while the Redskins will run the ball behind tackles Ken Moles (6-3, 275) and Andy Young (5-11, 275).  Goshen had LC beat in the 2005 games and allowed two late TDs in a 17-6 win.  LC, which has lost 26 of their last 30,  needs a win worse than Danica Patrick.

 

Gavit 34,  Hammond 14

HAMMOND  - Gavit will bring hard-running Victor Ayala (5-11, 210) to the line against another small-roster Hammond squad.  The Gladiators should have good size on the offensive line, which spells 'pain' for Hammond.  The Wildcats could only cross the goal line once in the scrimmage and this is one of the schools that is perennially hurt by the early start to the season.  Gavit was 3-8 last year.  It's not impossible they could turn that around.  But run the ball.  Passing gets your name in the paper.  Running wins games.

 

Morton 56, Clark 28

HAMMOND  - Another Hammond city fun fest with Clark returning QB Craig Fruth firing away into the new Morton secondary, while the Governors will whip out their 3-WR attack behind new QB David Wallace, a double threat runner and passer.  For every TD Clark can score, Morton can score two.  Morton has beaten Clark seven years in a row and truthfully, these are the level of nonconference games Hammond should drop if they want to move their program to the next level.

 

Hobart 42, Gary West Side 21

GARY  - This might not be the mismatch it, at first, appears.  West Side returns two-time state track finalists Terrell Green (6-1, 175) and Eugene Ellis (6-3, 165) at wide receivers and defensive backs.  Hobart has good speed on the perimeter, but they don't have West Side's speed.  Ellis was the 800 meter state champ in 2005.  Both West Side QBs return and their hope is a high-scoring game.  Anytime Hobart wants to, they can call the White House for 'the President' Andrew Jackson (6-2, 230) to bring good hard running and sophomore wide receiver Bobby James (6-3, 205) to haul one in from veteran QB Josh Miracle.  This matchup almost can't be dull, but dogs were puppies the last time West Side beat Hobart and it was 50-6 last year.

 

LaPorte 27, New Prairie 14

NEW CARLISLE  - LaPorte has had top multiple offenses in recent years, but they'll be ground-based this year with Airrence Shark running the football.  The Cougars have to rebuild after two very good years and they may not be physical enough for this next-door neighbor matchup overall, even with bookend tackles Brian Dolezeal (6-4, 275) and Robert Croumlich (6-1, 275).  LaPorte's new QB Adam "Apollo" Creed potentially can have a very good year.

 

Highland 21, Wheeler 20

HIGHLAND  - A big 2A in Wheeler against a small 4A in Highland.  A good match up.  The Bearcats have starting QB Devin Schlueter (6-1, 175) returning, while Highland breaks in junior Adam Musielak.  Linebacker Val Covarrubias is one of the Trojans' top defenders, while Wheeler has an all-area defender, ironically enough, named Derek Highlan (6-3, 220).

 

Rensselaer 27, North Newton 12

RENSSELAER  - Two totally revamped teams here.  Rensselaer can't replace all-state QB-DB-PK Jacob Kiger and they'll be more run-oriented in 2006 no mater what they say.  North Newton will debut senior rookie QB Derek Hyde (5-7, 150), but the Spartans gave up 30 points or more in six games and they may not be able to stop the run here.  This is a program win... Rensselaer's been winning with whatever they're using.  North Newton's been down and they're used to losing.

 

John Glenn 20, North Judson 7

WALKERTON  - Junior Todd Lawson ran for 1,400 yards and 19 TDs in 2005 for North Judson, which also returns linebacker CJ Gum (6-1, 215).  But Glenn returns senior QB Jared Eggers (6-2, 175) who will pass for more than the 900 yards he threw for in 2005.  Glenn is a big team with linebacker Brian Bogard (6-2, 225) and tackle Derek Traversa (6-0, 270).  Glenn won this game last year and they'll do it again.

 

Portage 35, (SB) Washington 20

PORTAGE  - Portage QB Vance Johnston should be able to light up the scoreboard here with returning skill position players Billy Doll (5-10, 180), Nate Milligan (5-11, 190) and Albert Evans (6-0, 185).  Washington is formidable defensively with Demetrius Wilson (6-2, 230) and Derek Smous (6-1, 220).  They'll run the option with John Bella (6-3, 215) and this game will be closer than Portage's 34-0 rout in 2005.  But Portage better get on these boys early, because Washington is not at all unarmed.

 

Penn 21, Valparaiso 14

GRANGER  - A state class matchup on opening night.  Valpo brings 16 starters on the bus with QB Alex Sarkisian and 1,000-yard back Hollis Ballard.  Penn has won 11 sectionals in a row and they return three boys who played QB at one time or another last year.  The Kingsmen, who have won 20 starlight Northern Indiana Conference (NIC) titles, return almost all of their offense and they are tough to beat at home.  But this is supposed to be one of Valpo's better teams and they traditionally are not intimidated here by the crazy Penn fans.

 

CROWN POINT 28, LOWELL 7

CROWN POINT  - The defending 4A state champs have to rebuild on offense and Crown Point returns a full compliment of skill position players.  CP defeated Lowell by 10 last year and unless new Devil QB Josh Kuiper has a big night running and passing, this game won't be close after halftime.  The backfield of Jon Sertich and Tommy Parks should have a big night if CP gets the lead.  The only way CP loses here is if they are overconfident, as they have been in the past against Lowell.

 

Kankakee Valley 28,  Munster 21

MUNSTER  - This is a very good opening night match as Munster whips out 'Little Joe' Gill (6-4, 205), their new starting QB against the Kougars, who return 15 starters including track star Dustin Wilson (5-10, 185).  Munster's 'Touchdown Tommy" Mambourg scored 15 times in 2005, but KV returns their entire defense including big DE Wes Clifton (6-4, 230).  Here's the upset of opening night, but only in the minds of the many NW Indiana folks who couldn't find DeMotte with a search party.

 

ANDREAN 35, Chesterton 34

CHESTERTON  - A very entertaining matchup of returning QBs Jesse Repay (122-175, 1,377 yards) of Andrean and Alex Beierwalter (158-291, 2,060 yards) of Chesterton.  Watch both coaches go against the hype on this night and try to establish the run.  Beierwalter is a better passer, but Repay is a better runner.  Both teams' defenses are a little suspect.  This can't help but be a high scoring game.  But it would be a major setback for Chesterton, which has seven 5A teams to play, to lose to 3A Andrean.

 
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Revised: August 16, 2006 .