Week 1 Football Picks

WEEK 15, 2006 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 2; Right - 3 = 60.0%
The Pick	The Result
(1A) Cardinal Ritter (13-1) 38, Sheridan (14-0) 36	Sheridan 34-28 (OT)
(2A) (FW) Harding 44, Southridge 21	(FW) Harding 20-7
(3A) Bishop Chatard (13-1) 31, Norwell (14-0) 13	Bishop Chatard 7-0
(4A) Concord (14-0) 42, (Indianapolis) Cathedral (13-1) 31	(Indianapolis) Cathedral 38-14
(5A) Warren Central 51, Carmel (12-2) 14	Warren Central 35-14

WEEK (15) FIFTEEN RECAP: Looking back, what was I smoking to think that Concord, even at 14-0, was going to beat Cathedral in the 4A state title game? One of the rules is, "Don't ever pick against an Indianapolis private school in a state title game." Picking Ritter over Sheridan was a game that could have gone either way. I actually thought I saw that game pretty well. You always pick Chatard (8 state titles in 15 years) and Warren Central (6 state titles and 4 in a row) in championship games. Those are almost home games for them.

Chatard and Warren Central find a way to win and WC didn't have to look too hard. Overall... 76% is my best year picking and is about as good as you can do. Truthfully, if you pick over 80%, you are selecting obvious blowouts to pad your numbers and you are not picking games all 15 weeks.

WEEK 1: 9 of 13 = 69.1%
WEEK 2: 10 of 15 = 66.7%
WEEK 3: 11 of 13 = 84.6%
WEEK 4: 11 of 14 = 78.6%
WEEK 5: 9 of 12 = 75.0%
WEEK 6: 10 of 13 = 76.9%
WEEK 7: 11 of 12 = 91.7%
WEEK 8: 10 of 11 = 83.3%
WEEK 9: 7 of 12 = 58.3%
WEEK 10: 19 of 24 = 79.1%
WEEK 11: 17 of 22 = 77.2%
WEEK 12: 16 of 21 = 76.2%
WEEK 13: 14 of 20 = 70.0%
WEEK 14: 9 of 10 = 90.0%
WEEK 15: 3 of 5 = 60.0%

2006 Regular Season: 88 of 115 = 76.5%
2006 Playoffs: 78 of 101 = 77.2%
2006 Season Overall to date: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

MERRILLVILLE (08-16-2007) - With the breakup of the Lake Athletic Conference and the formation of the Hammond Athletic Conference (HAC), the Greater South South Conference (GSSC) and the Northwest Crossroads Conference (NWCC), all schedules thankfully change. We finally get some new matchups that football fans will enjoy. This is going to be a very enjoyable year because of that fact alone.

It's a great year for QBs in the Duneland Athletic Conference, which has returning stars at CP, Chesterton and Valparaiso plus very promising newcomers at LaPorte and Merrillville. The NWCC is loaded with running backs. Hobart, Lowell and Griffith have almost certain 1,000-yard rushers. The GSSC and the HAC will find that, even though they didn't like how the leagues were created, the new groupings will be the best thing that ever happened to them. With the possible exception of Wheeler and Morton, all those schools are facing the teams they should face in league play. I think you'll see a slight bump in attendance all over the six county area (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton, Jasper and Starke) that we call NW Indiana.

The biggest season opener in many years brings 4-time Class 5A champion Warren Central and their 21-game winning streak to Merrillville Saturday night (Aug. 18) for a
6:00 p.m., CDT spectacular in the 8,000-seat Demaree Stadium.

There are a lot of NW Indiana prep football watchers who feel that 3A and 4A schools can compete with the elite 5As. I would invite them to Merrillville Saturday night to see the level of play that some of us have seen. Warren Central does nothing special. They will line up and run the ball like Lowell and Griffith. Just with different people. If you stand on the sidelines and watch Warren Central and still think Hobart could beat them, I would like to hear from you.

Let's leave out Whiting-River Forest, Michigan City-Gary Roosevelt and East Chicago-Hammond. I think we know how those games are going to come out. Also, I'll show respect to Calumet-Lew Wallace, Hobart-West Side, and Clark-Wirt by not commenting on those apparent mismatches either. Let's just say that the Gary schools traditionally are not ready to play in weeks one and two because a lot of them don't know what players they have until school opens.

And remember about week one. Anyone who tells you they can predict the first week of the season is lying to you. If you do well, you are lucky. If you pick badly, you'll get better.
I'm not sure that even the coaches know what's going to happen on opening night.

New Prairie (0-0) at LaPorte (0-0)

LaPORTE - This is a major rivalry in recent years as New Prarie's option running attack is a lot for the Slicers to handle. The LaPorte regional championship team lost 39-33 to New Prairie last year and had to rally to make it that close. This will be the debut of LaPorte soph QB Dustin DeMuth and he'll have veteran pass catcher Juwann Marshall plus big tailback Carlton Austin. But I think the Cougars' option attack will be again too much for LaPorte's new defense.

New Prairie 28, LaPorte 20

Chesterton (0-0) at South Bend Clay (0-0)

CHESTERTON - This is an interesting game because I think Clay actually believes they're going to win. The Colonials were 7-4 last year and tow of the losses were to Penn. But the Trojans are big and physical and if they can run for some first downs early, the passing attack on a warm weather night will take care of itself.

GRIFFITH - I'm not sure that either defense is ready for this one, but the Panthers, on their home field, have way too much offensive firepower with 1,000-yard rushers Doug Ashenbaugh and David Alexander. If they meet in October, it could be different, but I don't see anybody stopping anybody in this matchup right now.

HIGHLAND - This could be an ambush for the Trojans, who will have a good passing attack. The unknown here is speedy David Branch, a transfer from Thornton who has been impressive. Normally, you go with the passing teams early in the year and the running teams later on. But I think Wheeler is primed for a big opening night.

St. JOHN - These teams haven't met in five years and that's a crime for these next door neighbors. Both teams had losing records last year, but both could get out of the red ink this season. Junior QB Joe Gill of Munster threw for 14 TDs and just three interceptions last season and he's stronger now. But, again, there's a difference between 4A and 5A and a lot of it is depth. LC's going to wear down Munster in the fourth quarter.

MONON - Okay, I know I'm going a long way in search of a win for Lake Station. The Eagles were shutout six times last season in a 1-9 year and LS has lost four years in a row to the White County boys. I want to warn you off this one from an Eagle standpoint. North White has a junior QB named Travis Blunt (55 of 143, 897 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs) who, from his numbers, is a mad bomber. A 40% passer who averages 16 yards a completion. This won't go well for the Eagles.

North White 35, Lake Station 13

North Newton (0-0) at South Newton (0-0)

KENTLAND - You gotta love this one. The Civil War between the north and the south. They have a lot of fun with this one and lets just say, 'The South's Gonna Rise again.' The Rebels were 13-1 last year and even though they replace all-time leading passer Eric Watt with senior Ben Welsh (6-0, 170), much of both lines return. Even in a rivalry game, this is gong to be a spanking.

RENSSELAER - Here's another good rivalry for the unofficial championship of Jasper County. The Bombers hand the QB job to Kyle Rodibaugh, whose brother was a big star two years ago. Rensselaer has a very big offensive line and that's what it's all about. KV is 15-6 in the last two years, but they graduated a lot of offense and a rivalry opener on the road is not the way to break in new people.

Rensselaer 31, Kankakee Valley 20

Hammond Gavit (0-0) at Hammond Noll (0-0)

HAMMOND - There will be Hammond vs. Hammond games every week of the year and this is the first even though Noll is not in the new Hammond Athletic Conference. Gavit is 5-16 the last two years, but they know if they can stop 160-pound HB Tony Hollngsworth (271 carries, 1,832 yards, 24 TDs) they can shut down the Warriors. But here's another of those city schools that usually isn't ready to start the year mid-August.

MERRILLVILLE - I'm not sure Portage is as good as is being said. New coach. Unsettled situation at QB. Andrean's Austin Sutter takes over at QB and fullback David Brandt should be able to control the ball. The Indians' defense returns eight starters and that's the difference early in the year. Portage has a lot more depth and they will win late on an Albert Evans TD.

LOWELL - The big game on opening night matches two defending sectional champions with regional title hopes for 2007. Crown Point has won 18 regular season games in a row and they return a bus load of linemen plus 2,000-yard QB Blake Mascarello. Lowell returns seven on defense plus 1,000-yard back (actually 995 yards) Steffan Peck. Defenses traditionally take over here and that will be the case again. CP plays conservatively on the road and gets out of town alive in another neighborhood rivalry.

VALPARAISO - Valpo takes on one of the state's best in the Vikings' traditional opener. Penn is 81-14 in this decade, and although Valpo has some playoff upsets, the Kingsmen have beaten Valpo 10 years in a row in the season opener. Valparaiso has highly regarded Alex Sarkisian (111 -226, 1,323 yards) so they can put up points. But the Vikings' defense might not be ready for this match-up at this point.

Penn 40, Valparaiso 21

Warren Central (0-0) at Merrillville (0-0) - SATURDAY NIGHT (8-18-2007) 6:00 p.m., CDT

MERRILLVILLE - One of the more intriguing games in many years brings the four-time defending 5A state champ to Merrillville to face the NW Indiana team that several other locals refuse to play because of their depth and athleticism. WC is very good, but one dimensional. The Warriors aren't going to just score on Merrillville on every possession. Pirate QB Dilapo MacCarthy can become an instant legend if he can lead his team to victory, but WC has won 21 games in a row by 20 points or more. Merrillville has superior punting and place-kicking. There will be a point during the second half when it appear Merrillville is winning. Unfortunately for the Pirates, that moment won't be late in the fourth quarter.