Week 3 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

August 31, 2005

WEEK-2 ANALYSIS:  I think the 49-point win by Griffith over Chesterton says more about Chesterton right now than it does about Griffith.  Griffith isn't bad, but Chesterton isn't playing well and they're a passing team. Passing teams that play poorly look worse than running teams that play badly.

New Prairie lost the lead and lost for the second week in a row. I still think they are sectional title contenders in November. Lake Station is just a far better team than River Forest, it would appear, and some of the Griffith-Chesterton logic applies here.

The most inexplicable game is St. Joseph's and Portage. Portage was and is the better team and led 12-0.  I'm guessing they thought the game was won and let up. St. Joe may have done the same thing in week one when they led Mishawaka 13-0 and lost 21-14. 

Pick of the week: Clark breaking a 13-game losing streak by beating Hammond.  Clark has improved but you probably had to see the scrimmage with Lowell to know that.

WEEK 2 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 27 of 34, 79.4%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 3 (THREE) PREDICTIONS 9-2-2005

Highland (1-1)  21,  Munster (2-0)  14

MUNSTER -  Here's the first test of the old 'bounce back' theory.  If two teams are relatively equal with some ability, but one gets beaten badly by a vastly superior team (or upset by an inferior one) one week, odds are that team will defeat that equal the next week. 

It works almost every time. After losing 47-0 to 5A No. 3 Merrillville, Highland will welcome Munster, which is 2-0 after wins over Wirt (0-2) and KV (0-2).

Gavit (1-1)  28,  Bishop Noll (1-1)  12 

HAMMOND -  Please refer to the above paragraph.  Both of these teams were beaten by superior squads in week two. Morton stomped on Gavit 44-0, but Gavit gained 300 yards in the game.  Noll got smoked by Andrean 47-7 and was held to less than 100 yards.

The deal here is that I don't think Gavit and Noll are even. The Gladiators can control the ball here and win decisively. The Glads couldn't defend Morton throwing the ball but Noll can't throw.

Wheeler (0-2) 27,  Clark (1-1)  16 

HAMMOND – Clark broke their long losing streak last week but I think it's time for Wheeler to get on the board here. The Bearcats may have underestimated North Newton last week in a 41-20 loss.  This is Clark's first trip outside of Hammond this year and it will be tough to score.

Lake Station (1-1) 16, Kankakee Valley (0-2) 14 

LAKE STATION -  KV did rush for 243 yards last week but they found ways not to score in a 37-2 loss to Rensselaer.

Kougars are without their starting QB and, even though they are a 4A team. KV is on the road here at a Lake Station team that played well in both of the first two weeks.

Did Alfonso Tinoco kick a 47-yard field goal last week for Lake Station?  

North Newton (1-1)  35,  South Central (1-1)  21 

MOROCCO -  The more North Newton wins, the more the story of triplets Rich, Reid and Ryan Scheidt will get around. Folks in NW Indiana don't know they've been on the varsity three years.

Rich Scheidt was 12 of 17 for 176 yards last week. The Spartans don't have much defensively but they've scored 61 points in two games. South Central beat Culver 35-13 but Culver is not good at all this year.

One edge is that the Spartans are at home. There's a lot of two-lane roads from the west side of LaPorte to central Newton County. 

River Forest (0-2) 34,  Wirt (0-2)  21 

HOBART TOWNSHIP – Okay, how do you pick this one? RF has been outscored 95-0 while Wirt got bombed 51-8 by Munster last week.  Where do you go from here?

I know how this sounds considering the final scores the first two weeks but I really believe RF has an offense that can produce some quick TDs. Wirt has enough speed to get some breakaway scores so this should be a high-scoring game.

RF is putting in the run-and-shoot offense and when you are first initiating that style, you get beat 50-0. 

But another in a series of perfect passing (read: 70 degrees and dry) night will see a break-through for the Ingots. The score here could be a little short. With Wirt's speed, this game could be 56-42. 

Andrean (2-0)  23,  Morton (2-0)  20

MERRILLVILLE – This is the game of the week: Book one. Here's where you have to decide if you see what you believe or if you believe what you see.

Morton has rolled up the points in weeks one and two, outscoring two Hammond schools 85-6. They have an experienced QB in Robert Dutton who was 10-of-13 last week for 182 yards and 3 TDs. A squadron of receivers is led by basketball star Andre London. 

But since they've played just city foes, do you believe the scores?

Andrean nipped Chesterton 17-14 and smoked out Noll 47-7. Theoretically, the 59ers were to be strong defensively this year with a good offensive line. The 59ers have not allowed 100 yards rushing all season and they have an experienced secondary led by Chris Skinner. But the key here will be if Andrean's line and new running backs can control the ball. 

It comes down to whether you believe they can. This game should go down to the final minutes.

Michigan City (2-0) 20, Chesterton (0-2)  12 

MICHIGAN CITY -  After Chesterton lost to 3A powers Griffith and Andrean, they might be stepping up in competition this week to take on a Michigan City team that is one the rise.

MC halfback Robert Fics has scored eight TDs in two weeks including five in a 42-21 win over Clay last week. The Trojans are another team that's gong full-blast into the 'West Coast' offense and they met the 'East Coast' offense last week in a 56-7 loss to Griffith.

With new skill position players, it takes a while to make 'basketball on grass' work.  Until then, you get dunked.  Michigan City, with a big offensive line, isn't a good team for for the Trojans to play.

Portage (1-1) 35,  Lake Central (2-0)  14 

ST. JOHN -  Lake Central rallied to beat Goshen and survived East Chicago 21-20 but then they got the bad news: Portage had been upset 21-12 by St. Joseph's.

LC had a chance to surprise Portage, which is highly-touted as always. Portage gained 319 yards in the loss last week and have totaled over 700 yards in two games. But LC's offense, while improved, is not quite ready for this test.

QB Erik Rhein was intercepted three times last week, but that won't happen again. LC is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

LaPorte (2-0) 27, Valparaiso (1-1)  23 

LaPORTE -  One of the premier offensive teams in the area, LaPorte will attempt to ride the passing of veteran QB Lance Juergensen, the running of junior halfback Airrence Shark and the big foot of all-state kicker Nick Ford. LaPorte has scored 82 points in two games, but the Vikings have allowed just 16 points. 

Valpo has to control the ball and keep it away from the high-powered Slicers on their home field. New Prairie was able to run on LaPorte to the tune of 240 yards.  Here's another game that should go down to the fourth quarter but with Ford, LaPorte wins those games.

Lowell (1-1) 28, Griffith (2-0) 16 

LOWELL -  Griffith has passed for 300 yards in two games and Lowell has tossed for 300. Those are unheard of totals for the Panthers and Devils, who have previously run the ball 95% of the time. 

I don't know if the Griffith offensive line is quick enough to handle Lowell's defensive front and if they can't, the Devils will win. Nobody shuts out Griffith, but Lowell was shorthanded for the opener against CP and they aren't shorthanded now.

Rensselaer (2-0) 28, North Judson (1-1) 26  

NORTH JUDSON -  A classic matchup of a power running team (Judson) and a speedy perimeter team (Rensselaer). This is the 16^th  meeting in 10 years between these small town rivals and it should be close. Rensselaer is not strong against the run and you can throw on Judson. The score could get even higher than this and nobody will ask for their money back.

Merrillville (2-0) 31, Crown Point (2-0) 16 

CROWN POINT -  Another feature game and a classic rivalry that all-time is almost even.  The match-up of Merrillville's Michael Vick-like QB Evan Parker and Division I tailback James Aldridge (6 TDs) against CP's '35' defense, the five linebacker base formation they use.

The key stat here is that the Bulldogs have a 9-2 plus-minus turnover edge. If they continue that trend, they've proven they can beat the Pirates. But, if Merrillville doesn't turn the ball over, they are too strong for a CP team playing without two all-NW Indiana offensive players.

STATE GAME OF THE WEEK

4A No. 1 (Indianapolis) Roncalli (2-0) vs. 3A No. 2 Bishop Chatard (2-0)

at Broad Ripple high school – Indianapolis

INDIANAPOLIS -  Eight-time state champion Roncalli is 111-22 in the last 10 years while seven-time champ Bishop Chatard is 102-32. Roncalli is the three-time defending 4A state champ going for an unprecedented (in Indiana) four in a row. Chatard has won five of the last eight 3A state titles. These two are the gold standard in Class 4A and 3A in Indiana. No one else is even close.

Both teams suffered major graduation losses from 2004, but Chatard is 2-0 behind big wingback Joe Holland (6-1, 190), who has scored five TDs in two routs of weak schools.

Roncalli is led by HB Chris Merkel (5-9, 191), who has run for four TDs. The Rebels have beaten two quality (Carmel and Franklin Central) 5A schools and they stopped Chatard 10-7 last season in a defensive struggle.

Both teams run the ball almost exclusively so this game will be low-scoring as well. Chatard is known for speed defensively, but Roncalli is a little larger and they have mot allowed 100 yards to either foe so far.

This is the elite level of Indiana high school football (translated: these teams would not be blown out immediately by Warren Central) and it will be a battle of attacking defenses. Roncalli has played far toguher competition so far and that will show.

Roncalli 24, Bishop Chatard 6

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Revised: August 31, 2005 .