Week 4 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 7, 2004

WEEK THREE (3) ANALYSIS:

The biggest surprise was LaPorte getting to overtime with their No. 1 QB and one of their top running backs sidelined. Not even the fact that they won. Simply the fact that they got to overtime with a team that, will still prove to be superior. I probably should have paid more attention to Merrillville's unsettled situation at QB. But the Pirates had the ball inside CP's 30 six times and could not get a TD. Lowell vs. Griffith could have gone either way and it would not have been an upset. And it looks like I just don't want to admit that Gavit is as bad as they are. None of the eight correct picks were at all brilliant. I was amazed that anyone thought Hammond could stay with Hobart.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

2004 Season to date, 27 of 39, 69.2%

WEEK FOUR (4): Sep. 10, 2004

Gavit (0-3) 35, Clark (0-3) 21
I'm like President Bush. I still insist there are WMDs in Iraq!!! I STILL think Gavit is a good offensive team that should be winning ballgames. I refuse to believe the obvious. That the Gladiators have given up 105 points in three games including an incredible 77 points in the first half to Hammond rivals Hammond, Morton and Noll. That kind of tackling wont win the Lingerie Bowl. I don't want to hear it. I'm in denial. Clark has allowed 112 points in 3 games. Gavit, with QB Jake Galik over 600 yards passing, should win decisively Friday. I still think Gavit will have a winning season. But then, I picked the White Sox to finish first.

Kankakee Valley (1-2) 35, Bishop Noll (1-2) 27
This is the 'Shutdown Game of the Week” Noll's Bobby Kimp scored five TDs last week in a 49-28 victory over Gavit. Look for KV, which has lost to Rensselaer (3-0) and Munster (2-1) to put Kimp in Al Gore's “Lock Box' this Friday. The key is to make the Noll QB throw the ball. He is just 15 of 36 passing with 3 interceptions. The Kougars finally got a win over Lake Station last week and they should be buoyed by that 1-0 LAC record. Don't tell Whiting by KV will have something to say about the Oilers undefeated season on Oct. 15 in the season finale.

Gary West Side (3-0) 27, Wirt (0-3) 6
At first glance, this game is about as exciting as the premiere of 'Joey', but the 'Side' has stoked up on weak sisters (winless Lew Wallace, Englewood and Robeson) while Wirt's losses are to Munster (2-1), Wheeler (2-1) and south suburban Chicago power Rich East (1-1). If getting pounded there times hasn't beaten up the Troopers, they will keep this game close for a half. West Side has fumbled eight times in three games so they are not a great team by any stretch of anyone's imagination. But I don't think Wirt can score enough to beat anybody right now.

East Chicago (1-2) 33, (Chicago) Leo (2-0) 27
Leo beat Chicago's Hales Franciscan 28-0 Friday so EC's 53-8 joyride over Roosevelt doesn't mean much. But the Cardinals paid the price with blowout losses to 5A powers Merrillville 42-13 and Portage 54-23. Senior EC tailback Sammy Daniels has three consecutive 100-yard rushing games but Leo is led by two way WR-Safety Stephen Benjamin (6-2, 205) and lineman Richard Charles (6-3, 220). This should be a high-scoring entertaining game. This is a pivotal game for EC, which could start a long winning streak.

Griffith (2-1) 21, Munster (2-1) 7
Munster has lost ace running back Prince Kwateng (6-1, 205) for an indefinite period of time. The Mustangs do not have a passing attack yet so they are very vulnerable right now. Griffith will go without halfback Drew Rogowski (3 kick return TDS this year) who will sit out a one-game suspension after being ejected in the 21-20 victory over Lowell. Understand that the lack of two running backs makes this game difficult to pick. Virtually every school has a decent back-up running back who has been waiting for a chance to play. Running back is also an easy position to find a sub. Almost any other player at any other position can switch to running back. But, all things being equal, the Panthers will have to give Munster scoring chances because the Ponies are not an offensive powerhouse right now. No one has stopped Griffith's offense yet. They have only stopped themselves with fumbles.

Hobart (2-1) 20, Highland (2-1) 3
Highland should have lost to Culver Military and Munster but they should have beaten Whiting. Spirit will be high after winning the first LAC Black Division game. But Hobart is physically superior and there is a mismatch in the lines here. Highland has allowed 600 yards rushing in three games and Hobart has rushed for 500 yards behind 6-4, 350-pound right tackle Adam Bailey. Munster, playing shorthanded, led Highland 16-7 in the fourth quarter last week before giving the game away. Hobart has not allowed a TD in six quarters. If you cant throw, you cant beat them. Highland's new QB Andrew Helmer. a converted WR, is just 29 of 59 so far. Hobart must win their next two games with Lowell (2-1), Griffith (2-1) and Andrean (3-0) waiting in the second half of the season.

River Forest (2-1) 40, New Buffalo (2-1) 26
New Buffalo, a community just north of LaPorte along Lake Michigan across the Michigan state line got beat 45-0 last week by Martin after winning 34-0 over River Valley (0-3). It's a small school without a lot of power in the lines, traditionally. River Forest got going with a 59-0 win over River Valley last week. I would suspect that the Eagles can go to the air at will here. QB Matt Bigott has thrown for almost 700 yards but RF has allowed nearly 600 yards rushing. New Buffalo was 2-7 last year and graduated their starting QB. The best matchup should be between RF's WR Mike Carver and New Buffalo defensive back Sean Baker, the Bison's best defensive player.

Chesterton (2-1) 28,  LaPorte (2-1) 14
LaPorte was surprising last week. After rallying to beat 3A New Prairie 24-17, and getting run over 28-7 at Elkhart Central, the Slicers edged powerful Valparaiso in overtime 27-21. What changed. Senior QB Anthony Dubbs replaced injured starter Lance Juergensen, who reportedly, may have a torn rotator cuff. LaPorte gave up 445 yards to Valpo but prevailed in OT as Culver-transfer Josh Salary carried 15 times for 116 yards. Chesterton is a double deflection on a fourth down pass away from being 3-0. The Trojans averaged 31.6 through three games with Casey Martin (33 of 54, 423 yards), who tossed three TDs in a 48-0 win over Michigan City. There's just too much offense here for LaPorte to stop but none of the first three Slicers games have gone as predicted.

Crown Point (2-1) 37,  Lake Central (1-2) 27
Crown Point erased two fourth quarter losses in the first two weeks with a 7-3 victory over Merrillville. The Bulldogs got a strong effort from their undersized defense, holding Merrillville, which scored 96 in the first two weeks, to just three points. But Merrillville uses a one-back set and LC can hit CP with fullback Jon Maida (6-0, 205), who has rushed for 300 yards and four TDs. LC lost 17-16 to Crown Point in 2003 and they'll see this one as a chance to get straight after losses to undefeated Loyola Academy (2-0) and Portage (3-0). Crown Point QB Matt Jansen has hit soph WR Matt Ernest 16 times in three games and LC can't cover the Bulldogs four and five wide receiver sets. CP throws 20-30 times a game so this will be a long, high scoring game.

Lowell (2-1) 34, Morton (2-1) 14
Morton romped in weeks one and two but they were slowed in a 21-6 loss at Andrean. Lowell also started 2-0 and got reversed in a 21-20 loss at Griffith. Lowell will have matchup problems with 6-3 Morton pass catcher Devon Harper but junior QB Robert Dutton is a 40% passer so far in his debut season as a starter. Can Willie White (5-10, 180) gain yards on the Lowell defense? Possibly. Can Lowell's Toby Goetz (5-11, 216) gain yards on the revamped defensive front of Morton. That's more likely. This is Morton's first true road game (first game outside of Hammond this year) and Lowell is a very difficult place to play. The Devils certainly feel they should have won at Griffith, failing on a two-point conversion with 1:58 to play and losing a final possession due to a controversial spot of the ball. The Devils aren't 20 points better but this is not the week to be playing at Lowell.

Merrillville (2-1) 24, Portage (3-0) 20
This is not that big an upset. Portage has run for almost 700 yards but Merrillville, led by Jason Smith (6-34, 295), heavyweight wrestling champion Dexter Larimore (6-3, 235) and all-star defensive end Michael Neal (6-4, 225) just won t allow Portage HB Antoine Brown (52 caries 475 yards) to run wild. The Pirates have allowed just 300 yards and just one TD rushing this season. Portage has all-starter Milton Rivera at WR but Merrillville has a star deep safety in Bart Woodward. The Indians average 37.6 points per game and they will be on their home field in front of 5,000 fans but the fans cant tackle James Aldridge (6-1, 215), who has run for 550 yards and nine TDs. Portage QB Jake Huston has thrown for 5 TDs and no interceptions but he has not seen Merrillville's pass rush. You don't want to play an angry team and Merrillville cant believe they lost to Crown Point last week. They will be angry when they come down Route 6 for Friday's game. If Portage plays well for nine weeks, there's only two games they can lose and this is one of them.

Look for Jefferson to win by 12.

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Revised: October 06, 2004 .