Week 4 Football Picks

WEEK 3, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 8 = 66.7%
The Pick	The Result
Morton 32, Clark 16	Correct... Morton 14-12
Rensselaer 20, North Judson 12	Wrong... North Judson 24-20
Munster 28, Highland 21	Correct... Munster 49-0
Bishop Noll 35, South Central 16	Wrong... South Central 21-14
River Forest 28, Lake Station 26	Wrong... Lake Station 24-6
Wheeler 42, Whiting 35	Correct... Wheeler 37-26
Hobart 28, Griffith 21	Correct... Hobart 24-14
Chesterton 41, Michigan City 21	Correct... Chesterton 22-20
Valparaiso 51, LaPorte 38	Wrong... LaPorte 21-17
Lowell 28, Kankakee Valley 10	Correct... Lowell 38-0
Lake Central 16, Portage 14	Correct... Lake Central 14-6
Crown Point 17, Merrillville 12	Correct... Crown Point 20-17 (OT)

WEEK 4 (FOUR) RECAP 1ST WEEK OF CONFERENCE PLAY FROM 8/31: I'm not sure what's happened at Bishop Noll, but the defense is getting a rough ride. Noll should not lose to 1A South Central. Valparaiso had the lead on LaPorte, but the Slivers are tough at home. River Forest has lost 16 games in a row. It was a sentimental pick for them to beat Lake Station. There's no sentiment in football! And I did not think Rensselaer would continue to struggle on offense but they have. The best picks of the week were Wheeler over Whiting, Crown Point over Merrillville and the upset, LC over Portage.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (overall) 24 of 36   = 66.7%
2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 4 (FOUR) PICKS, 09-07-2007

MERRILLVILLE (09-07-2007) - Now that the summer is finally over we can get serious about football. Nobody admits this, but I don't think the boys really get locked into football until after the Labor Day holiday. Until then, it's just a job. When we get the first 50 degree weather night, which I hear may be coming on the 14th of September, that's when football really kicks in.

It's no secret that the last decade has been full of hard times for Gary football. This year, every team is winless except for Gary Roosevelt, which got to be the foe for the first game by Gary charter school Bowman Academy. Velt won 62-0. West Side plays Wirt this week so Gary gets a win somehow, but you've still got Lew Wallace playing a Friday night game in Cadillac, Michigan this week. Sure wish the Roosevelt (1-2) game against undefeated Hammond (3-0) was a Saturday game because it may be ignored on Friday night. There's a lot of talk about how talented the Velt is and they're averaging 38 points a game, but nobody's going to watch on Friday night with 15 other games on the schedule.

Not a great week, but not bad. Long-time rivals Lowell and Griffith and neighbors Lake Central and Crown Point top the list. Downstate, defending 3A state champ Bishop Chatard (2-1) takes on defending 4A champ Cathedral (2-1) in an inner city private school showdown game to be played at the University of Indianapolis.

I'm going to eliminate five games this week. North Newton has lost seven in a row, so I'll let them play Wheeler without a prediction. River Forest has lost 16 in a row, so I'll leave them be, as well. Obviously Hobart is going to beat KV whether the Brickie Bowl is dried out or not. They could play the game at Gilroy Stadium and Hobart would win. It's unfair to pick that game and I don't have to stoop to picking Clark over Longwood Academy either. I don't need an easy 'correct' that badly. And other than Roosevelt, the moratorium on picking Gary games continues.

While I appreciate why the writers at the Times pick 20 games every week (the newspaper can't say that a local team's game is a horrible mismatch and not worth picking like I can), those folks go 5-0 every week before the games start because of games like Wheeler at North Newton. If the Wheeler bus gets to Newton County safely, the Bearcats win. Picking high school winners isn't like the NBA. Here, we don't want to fix the outcome before the games begin.

Gavit (1-2) at East Chicago (0-3):

EAST CHICAGO - The Cardinals hoped to be strong this year and they may do well in the 4A playoffs (they were 5A for many years), but this game represents their final chance to come back for a winning regular season. The Cardinals have given up 104 points, but the buck has to stop here. Gavit got buried last week, 57-12 by a bad South Bend Riley team. EC wins about as often as Danica Patrick, but they break into the win column here.

East Chicago 32, Gavit 20

Morton (1-2) at Highland (0-3):

HIGHLAND - Let's not sugar coat this. Highland's looking at a winless season if they don't win this game Friday. The Trojans have not been able to match line play so far. They might want to use their skill players by throwing the ball outside and trying to make plays, but this is the wrong team to do that against. This is the Highland home opener, but Morton is very good on the perimeter and more powerful than in past years. Morton eventually will blow somebody out and 'eventually' will be Friday night.

Morton 42, Highland 14

Hammond (3-0) at Gary Roosevelt (1-2):

GARY - This will be a very telling contest and maybe a prelude to a new Hammond-Gary city league. The Panthers put on an aerial show with Hamilton Yancey (13 of 21, 217 yards last week). Division I prospect Amos Littles scored on two punt return TDs. Hammond has scored 116 points (38.6 ppg.) in three games, but this will be the first time they've seen a team as fast as they are. The real story here is: "How many fans will show up to watch?" The Hammond and Gary athletic departments don't want to say it out loud, but bad football isn't their problem concerning their conferences. Bad fan support is. Here's a chance for Hammond and Gary to show that there is interest in football in those cities. Fans who complain about the breakup of the LAC need to show up at games like this. There will not be a more entertaining matchup than this one all season. Hammond will be able to run the ball more effectively.

Hammond 44, Gary Roosevelt 30

Lake Station (1-2) at Bishop Noll (0-3):

HAMMOND - A hard game to figure. Noll's defense must feel like Notre Dame's, getting smoked out by Georgia Tech Saturday. Noll has allowed 30 points a game and they need a patsy. But Lake Station beat arch rival River Forest 24-6 last week to break a 10-game losing streak and you never know about a team until they win one. Trouble is, Lake Station is 4-19 in three years and three of those wins are over River Forest. Noll gets well here.

Noll 42, Lake Station 20

South Central (2-1) at Whiting (2-1):

WHITING - Whiting has been prolific on offense throwing the ball, while South Central bakes their bread by running the football. Fullback Cody Williams ran for 231 yards last week. Whiting's Anthony Dumezich has passed for over 600 yards. Tough game because if it rains, and that's in the forecast, SC has an edge. The weather men are wrong a lot of the time.

Whiting 38, South Central 27

Andrean (2-1) at Munster (2-1):

MUNSTER - These teams have played a couple of tough games and sit 1-0 in the new Northwest Crossroads Conference. Who is Andrean freshman Demetri Blanco? Last week, did he really rush four times for 116 yards and catch three passes for 89 yards? QB Austin Sutter was 17 of 25 for 252 yards. Munster rushed for 359 yards against Highland last week, but there's a question as to whether Highland is a competitive team. I think the 59ers' defense is superior, but with Munster at home, this is a very close game.

Andrean 21, Munster 20

Griffith (1-2) at Lowell (3-0):

LOWELL - Ominous numbers here for the visitors. Griffith has completed 11 passes all year. Griffith has scored nine TDs. David Alexander has eight of them. Lowell has 11 consecutive shutout quarters on defense. The Panthers have to find a way to do damage with someone other than Alexander. This could be another shutout.

Lowell 17, Griffith 7

Michigan City (2-1) at Valparaiso (1-2):

VALPARAISO - Probably the toughest game of the week to pick because Valpo should be 2-1 and Michigan City had a 50-50 chance to be 3-0 in the fourth quarter last week. I don't know how Valpo keeps losing the close ones, but I don't think the Wolves have the secondary and pass rush to outscore Valparaiso.

Valparaiso 34, Michigan City 27

LaPorte (2-1) at Chesterton (3-0):

CHESTERTON - Here's another offense-minded game, but I can't see the young defense of LaPorte stopping the Trojans this week. The offensive line and QB Alex Beirwalter has staked the Trojans to a 30 ppg. scoring average. It might rain, which would make LaPorte's ground game more effective. But I've already said Chesterton will go 7-0.

Chesterton 38, LaPorte 28

Crown Point (2-1) at Lake Central (3-0):

ST. JOHN - Here's an odd stat. Lake Central has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet, but they've given up 3 passing TDs to teams, with the possible exception of Munster, that aren't good passing teams. Crown Point is a real good passing team. LC has as much chance of winning here as the Bears do of beating San Diego with Rex Grossman at QB. The cold, hard truth is: LC is 3-0, but they are the weakest team CP has faced so far.

Crown Point 37, Lake Central 20

Portage (2-1) at Merrillville (2-1):

MERRILLVILLE - Both of these teams are as angry as the University of Michigan about last week's football results. Portage could not block the Lake Central line and lost 14-6. Merrillville led 14-0 with 6:21 to play and lost at Crown Point. But the Pirates have a great defense. They've allowed just 36 points in three games and they run harder than Barrack Obama.