Week 4 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

September 7, 2009

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK THREE (3), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 3; Right - 11 = 78.5%;  Season: 34-11, 75.5%
The Pick	The Result
Calumet 28, North Newton 14	Calumet 6-0
ANDREAN 35, East Chicago 12	ANDREAN  54-13
Riley 40, Gavit 8	Riley 58-13
South Central 28, Bishop Noll 26	*WRONG... Noll 33-26
Wheeler 42, Whiting 21	Wheeler 63-0
River Forest 20, Lake Station 12	River Forest 38-18
Rensselaer 16, North Judson 7	Rensselaer 13-6
Munster 35, Highland 7	Munster 28-0
LOWELL 35, KV 13	LOWELL 40-13
Hobart 17, Griffith 14	*WRONG... Griffith 30-21
Portage 28, Lake Central 14	Portage 27-0
Valparaiso 44, LaPorte 35	*WRONG... LaPorte 28-21
Michigan City 20, Chesterton 14	Michigan City 31-21
MERRILLVILLE 30, CROWN POINT 21	MERRILLVILLE 38-14

WEEK (3) THREE ANALYSIS:  All of these selections probably have to be judged in the context of there being only two choices.  If you flip a coin, you're going to get 50% correct.  But I encourage all of you to pick games to add to your enjoyment of the sport.  It's not nearly as limp-wristed as so-called fantasy football where you basically have to be a home-schooled, stay-in-the-basement geek to follow every team.  Fantasy football people, by and large, don't like the game of football, they like the antiseptics dweeb game they're playing.  Picking games, to a great extent, simply makes you follow the sport and read results, which becomes its own reward if you're able to attend a game every week.  The toughest thing to do is pick against teams you want to win.

 

There's a tendency to always be able to conceive of a way your favorite team will come out on top.  Somewhat like major league baseball when your team is seven games out with a month to play.  You imagine a scenario that they can come back and finish in first place.  To be able to recognize that as fantasy and say what you really feel is not always something you can do right away.

 

But, as I said last week, it also boils down to 'Do you dare to be wrong?'  In week three, there were hints that LaPorte and Michigan City would win over more highly-regarded foes.  But I didn't have the nerve to pick LaPorte over Valpo and paid the price.  If I had it to do over again, I'd take the Slicers in a second.  Not so with South Central and Bishop Noll.  I do not know why South Central is losing with the running attack they have.  Hobart and Griffith could have gone either way.

 

The best pick of the week?  Munster over Highland by 28 points was right on the money but that's not a tough game to call.  I thought the pick of Rensselaer over North Judson was a good one.  The selection of Merrillville and Crown Point to be a high-scoring game was good.  But Michigan City over Chesterton was probably the best one.
 

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

This week, let's leave out Whiting (3-0) at North Newton (0-3).  You're just stealing if you pick that game.  Shame on you.  Same with Lalumiere at Bowman.  Lalumiere is very bad.  I'll also decline to pick Hammond over Roosevelt (0-3) as the Panthers are headed for 0-9 unless they can beat weak Chicago Charter.  I'll also take a pass on North Lawndale at Gary West Side (2-1) because I didn't know North Lawndale had a football team.  Also, Highland can't play with Morton and both sides know it, so let's leave that one out.  The goal here is not to pad the percentage with obvious, easy wins.  I want to pick real fights.  Like they do in Washington, DC.
   

Calumet (2-1) at River Forest (1-2)

HOBART (9-11-2009) Be careful here because Calumet could easily be 0-3 or 3-0.  River Forest has an experienced team and they just won for the first time.  But I don't think River Forest can run the ball at all on Calumet.  Not even for 100 yards.  that will allow the visitors to escape with a win.

Calumet 27, River Forest 8


Lake Station (0-3) at Bishop Noll (1-2)

HAMMOND (9-11-2009) Lake Station can run the ball some.  Over 200 yards last week against River Forest.  But this game shouldn't be here except that Noll has barely won once and there's some doubt about them.  This is a strength of schedule pick and check the margin of victory.  It shouldn't be close in any way.
 

Bishop Noll 56, Lake Station 12


Gavit (0-3) at East Chicago (0-3)
 

EAST CHICAGO (9-11-2009) East Chicago has scored just 25 points all season, but they've done it against good teams.  Gavit has allowed 50 points per game and it's going to be hard for them not to quit.  The Gladiators must stick with it because there is more than one team on the schedule in the second half of the season that they will be favored to beat.  As for now, its a big 0-4.

East Chicago 33, Gavit 14


Lew Wallace (1-1) at Clark (1-2)
 

HAMMOND (9-11-2009) Tough game here because LW was shut out by Chesterton, a team they'd never beat and they shut out Lalumiere, a team they'd beat every week.  Clark won two close ones and then was crushed 41-3 by Morton.  A lot's going to come down to whether Clark thought they had a good team before last week.  If they didn't, they'll expect trouble. If they did, they'll be angry.

Clark 44, Lew Wallace 12


Kankakee Valley (0-3) at Hobart (1-2)
 

HOBART (9-11-2009) The Brickies need a team they can beat, but KV has lost to three undefeated teams in Rensselaer (3-0), Wheeler (3-0) and Lowell (3-0).  Here's where expectations come in again.  If KV never thought they'd be any good this year, Hobart will smoke them.  If they did (and I hear they did), they'll see this trip to the new 'Brickyard' as their big chance to finally get started.  I like Hobart in a very close game that could go either way.

Hobart 21, KV 14


ANDREAN (2-1) at Munster (3-0)

MUNSTER (9-11-2009) The first real confrontation of the Northwest Crossroads Conference contenders.  Munster has averaged 40 points a game, but they won't score 40 on Andrean, which lost 28-14 to 5A Merrillville.  This game may explain how the rest of the season may go for these two teams.  I think this is an even contest where Andrean has faced the tougher opposition so far.

ANDREAN 35, Munster 28


Griffith (1-2) at LOWELL (3-0)
 

LOWELL (9-11-2009) Griffith was 1-2 in 2007 when they beat a Lowell team that went to the state title game.  Lowell has averaged over 250 yards per game rushing so far and the Panthers will be show up ready to stop that.  Griffith commits too many turnovers to win here and I think this is the game Lowell boys look forward to.

LOWELL 34, Griffith 14


Michigan City (3-0) at Valparaiso (1-2)
 

VALPARAISO (9-11-2009) Here's where you have to look at the schedule.  Valparaiso has lost to Penn (2-1) and LaPorte (3-0).  Michigan City, while 3-0, has not seen the kind of offensive talent they'll see from the Vikings.  MC will be fired up to play, but it's not easy being an unbeaten team on the road.  I like the Wolves, but they make too many turnovers to win here and this is a must game for a Valpo team that is playing without its starting QB for the third week in a row.

Valparaiso 30, Michigan City 20

 

LaPorte (3-0) at Chesterton (2-1)
 

CHESTERTON (9-11-2009) LaPorte has scored at least four TDs in every game so far, but Chesterton has two shutouts outside league play.  I don't like how many rushing yards LaPorte has given up, almost 550 in three games to teams that didn't have great offensive lines.  Chesterton can't do much but run the ball, but I think that's the plan here.  One thing you KNOW about a LaPorte game.  Unless there's a hurricane in Chesterton, this will be a high scoring game.

Chesterton 40, LaPorte 28

 

CROWN POINT (1-2) at LAKE CENTRAL (1-2)
 

ST. JOHN (9-11-2009) Crown Point knows why they're 1-2.  In fact, after losses to Lowell (3-0) and Merrillville (2-1), they may see this game as a chance to get straight.  LC is in much the same boat, after having been rejected by Munster 27-10 and Portage 27-0.  LC gained 259 yards rushing last week and that's what I've been looking for from them.  CP can throw the ball on LC, but they have a few early injuries and may not be ready to win a close one on the road.

LC 24, CP 20

 

Portage (2-1) at MERRILLVILLE (2-1)
 

MERRILLVILLE (9-11-2009) This game would be matching 3-0 teams if Portage had not scheduled Chicago power St. Rita (2-0) or if Merrillville did not open the season with five-time state champ Warren Central.  This game probably matches the top two teams in NW Indiana.  The Pirates have given up an uncomfortable amount of passing yards (400) in three games but Portage has allowed a surprising amount of rushing yards (700).  This should be an offensive showcase, but Merrillville has a lot of guys who can score.
 

MERRILLVILLE 41, Portage 30


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Revised: September 07, 2009 .