Week 4 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-3, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Sept. 3-4, 2011 Wrong - 4; Right - 9 = 69.2%
The Pick	The Result
Morton 42, Clark 14	Morton 48-7
Munster 31, Highland 7	Munster 29-0
Boone Grove 28, Lew Wallace 12	(wrong) LW 19-7
Hammond 42, Bowman 33	Hammond 66-30
Griffith 33, Hobart 14	Griffith 21-13
Wheeler 42, Whiting 14	Wheeler 53-0
Lake Station 18, River Forest 16	(wrong) RF 40-0
So. Central 27, Bishop Noll 17	South Central 33-7
North Judson 16, Rensselaer 14	Judson 26-14
Valparaiso 44, LaPorte 14	Valpo 47-14
Portage 28, Lake Central 24	(wrong) LC 62-7
Chesterton 51, Michigan City 6	Chesterton 48-14
CP 27, MERRILLVILLE 17	(wrong) Merrillville 21-20

WEEK THREE (3) ANALYSIS: The LC-Portage pick was the biggest surprise, if only in the margin of victory. Ditto for Lake-Station-River Forest. Those outcomes are extreme. Crown Point should have defeat Merrillville. They lewd them with a minute to play. And it might have been a fantasy that Boone will beat anyone this year.

BEST PICK: Valpo over LaPorte. To get anywhere near that final score was pretty good considering LaPorte wa s undefeated and Valpo was winless.

2011 Season, 1st 3-weeks: 23 of 36 = 63.7%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (4) FOUR: There are some mismatches this week. More than a few. I need some easy picks, but I cant bring myself to pick six mismatched games. Roosevelt cannot beat Hammond High. Michigan City has no chance against Valparaiso. None. Boone Grove has no chance at North Judson. Not this year. Lew Wallace has no chance against Clark and Regis Philbin will win the US Open before Rensselaer beats Tipton.

You just can't pick giveaway games and, this week, that doesn't leave very many targets. But it does leave some pivotal games. It's going to be harder to wear down teams with small rosters as the temperature drops. On a day with some rain, the schools with artificial turf may benefit, too.

Wheeler (3-0) at North Newton (2-1):

MOROCCO (09-09-2011) The Bearcats average 46 points a game, but they won't get 46 in the mud an hour from home. The Spartans are a couple of TDs away from being 3-0 and they've been shelled by Wheeler for years. Guess what. They'll be shelled by Wheeler again.

Wheeler 30, North Newton 6

Gavit (1-2) at East Chicago (1-2):

HAMMOND (09-09-2011) The Cardinals like to go to the air, but it may rain and Gavit would then have the edge. The Gladiators can be run over on the ground, but EC can't play that way. The Cardinals have less defense than the New Orleans Saints.

Gavit 28, East Chicago 12

Calumet (0-3) at River Forest (2-1):

HOBART TOWNSHIP (09-09-2011) River Forest averages 32 points a game, but Calumet has played the tougher schedule. The Warriors should be better. You wonder about turnout and injuries. RF has not defeated Calumet in 14 years, but that ends Friday night.

River Forest 21, Calumet 13

Kankakee Valley (0-3) at Hobart (1-2):

HOBART (09-09-2011) The Brickies showed improvement in a narrow loss to Griffith last week and KV actually led Lowell in the third quarter before they lost big in the fourth period. The Brickies are the bigger team physically and the weather may be bad. KV has just one senior in the program and that's going to make it hard to win on the road this year.

Hobart 35, Kankakee Valley 14

South Central (2-1) at Whiting (1-2):

WHITING (09-09-2011) A long drive for the Satellites and Whiting is better than they've showed. SC's Ethan Biggs ran for three TDs last week. Obviously, South Central is the favorite, but I'm leaning towards a home field upset here. Keep in mind, I think Notre Dame has a chance against Michigan, too.

Whiting 21, South Central 14

Morton (3-0) at Highland (1-2):

HIGHLAND (09-09-2011) Morton's offense got started last week after two close wins. Highland's season may have turned when they did not hold a late lead against Hammond in week two. I apologize for picking this game. Even though they are home Friday, Highland is 4-40 the last five seasons. It's like watching the Oakland Raiders. Long time ago, they used to be good.

Morton 34, Highland 14

LaPorte (2-1) at Chesterton (2-1):

CHESTERTON (09-09-2011) LaPorte was overmatched last week against Valparaiso and this is a tough place to get better. Chesterton's new artificial turf comes into play here if it rains Friday. But they could play this one in a cornfield. There's very little chance this game is close.

Chesterton 34, LaPorte 14

Portage (0-3) at MERRILLVILLE (1-2):

MERRILLVILLE (09-09-2011) Here's another questionable choice in a very weak slate of games. Portage lost their starting QB last week and gave up three interceptions for touchdowns. Merrillville gained 440 yards at Crown Point. Rain might slow Merrillville's passing game, but that's the only thing that will.

MERRILLVILLE 27, Portage 7

CROWN POINT (2-1) at LAKE CENTRAL (3-0):

ST. JOHN (09-09-2011) LC has scored four touchdowns on defense this year and that gives them a chance against anybody. The field comes into play here as LC is usually very muddy when it rains. Hard to know what effect last week's one-point loss had on CP, but Crown Point is still the better team.

CROWN POINT 24, LAKE CENTRAL 17

Griffith (2-1) at LOWELL (1-2):

LOWELL (09-09-2011) One of the state's classic rivalries. They have met every year for over seven decades. It will get muddy at Lowell, too, as two ground-oriented teams decide this game quickly. The Panthers have a kicking edge and Lowell has 11 turnovers so far. But Lowell is the bigger stronger team and they are at home.

LOWELL 20, Griffith 17