Week 5 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 14, 2004

WEEK FOUR (4) ANALYSIS:

Virtually every game went the way it was supposed to. Even in the Noll win over KV, KV led 17-7 entering the fourth quarter before they gave Noll 14 points on turnovers. Morton and Lake Central are the poster children for programs that take the challenge of moving into stronger leagues. It takes years to compete. Merrillville wins this week's Notre Dame bounce back award. The Pirates, who lost 7-3 to Crown Point and then traveled to beat 4^th-ranked Portage, are as easy to explain as the Irish who played like offense was illegal against Brigham Young before piling up 300 yards and 28 points on 8^th-ranked Michigan. Four warm weather nights have obviously aided offenses.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

2004 Season to date, 38 of 51, 74.5%

WEEK FIVE (5): Sep. 17, 2004

Calumet (1-3) 34, Clark (0-4) 20

Calumet posted a miracle victory last week with two TDs in the final minute against Wheeler and they should be better than they have shown. Both teams give up an incredible amount of rushing yards, but Calumet probably has a better running attack. Clark has allowed 1,000 yards rushing but Calumet has allowed almost 1,500 yards rushing, albeit against tougher competition. Calumet beat Wheeler 28-27, Clark lost to them 27-26. Flip a coin.

Bishop Noll (2-2) 51, Lake Station (1-3) 20

Noll did a lot to survive a 10-point deficit at KV last week and win 28-17. The Noll defense scored two TDs and the offense rolled up 300 yards. Noll is not great against the run but they should have an athletic edge over Lake Station, which is an overtime period away from being 0-4. Lake Station does not have the passing attack to rally if they fall behind and Noll is thinking first place after two LAC Blue Division wins.

Highland (2-2) 28, Hammond (2-2) 24

A tough game to figure. Both teams could win decisively. This is a down year in the LAC Black Division and these two have seen better days. Highland is a fumble and a rumble away from being 0-4 and they have allowed a surprising 850 yards rushing. But you feel that new QB Andrew Helmer is just learning and this team is improving. Hammond fights a numbers problem so they can be worn down. The Wildcats signaled they have not quit by jumping to a 12-0 lead in a 33-12 loss to 3A No 6 Andrean (4-0) last week. Veteran Hammond QB Chris Moore is a double threat. Hammond has not fumbled in their last two games. I think the depth of Highland will prevail as summer weather holds.

Twin Lakes (3-1) 24, Rensselaer (4-0) 21

A feature game of the week as the undefeated Bombers face another larger-school test. Jacob Kiger has run for 10 TDs and kicked two field goals to lead Rensselaer's 34-points-per game attack. The Bombers are throwing the ball more this year, completing 27 passes in four games. Twin Lakes lost 29-7 to unbeaten Sheridan but that's their only loss. The Indians have allowed just 59 points in four games and they are at home. Rensselaer has defeated two consecutive undefeated teams and this might be the final hurdle to a 9-0 regular season. This will be too tough a task.

Caston (3-1) 42, South Central (2-2) 16

South Central got a surprising win at Adams Central (1-3) Friday, but this is far too much to ask. Caston lost 7-0 to Pioneer in week four but Pioneer came in averaging 50 points a game. South Central simply does not have that kind of defense. The Satellites have been competitive in every game so far... until Friday.

LaPorte (2-2) 28, Lake Central (1-3) 0

Lake Central didn't show much in a 27-6 loss at Crown Point last week while LaPorte led a superior Chesterton squad 14-0 before losing 21-14. The Slicers have a strong running game and Anthony Dubbs is a solid, mistake-free QB. LC's Steve Apostol is athletic, but he'll have to be against the blitzing LaPorte defenses. The Slicers are a young team that's improving. LC is desperate and the injuries are piling up. 0-3 in the DAC means 'let's get ready for the playoff draw.'

Pioneer (4-0) 33, River Forest (2-2) 12

RF is one defensive stop away from being 3-1. They led Lake Station 39-32 after three quarters of a game they lost 45-39. RF has scored 144 points in four games including back-to-back wins over Michigan small schools. Pioneer just rejected Class 1A No. 10 Caston 7-0 in the first test of the season but that's deceptive. The Panthers rushed for 410 yards in a 52-41 win over Lafayette Catholic and 566 yards in a 66-13 win over South Newton. They are a high penalty, ground-based team that clearly doesn't mind running up the score. The Panthers beat a 2A school Winamac 42-0. The good news is that Lafayette Catholic passed for 440 yards on Pioneer. The bad news is, River Forest can't throw the ball quite like Lafayette Catholic.

Hobart (3-1) 16, Munster (2-2) 0

Hobart looks good to stay undefeated in the Lake Athletic Conference because Munster is not strong offensively without top rusher Prince Kwateng. The Brickies are far too physical for almost everyone in the LAC and they've allowed only 48 points all season. This game will be as lame as the premiere of 'Joey,' but the Brickies will roll to a fourth consecutive win. The Mustangs have lost too much offensively and they haven't had a soft game to build confidence since Kwateng got hurt.

Portage (3-1) 30, Crown Point (2-2) 16

CP is flying high behind junior passer Matt Jansen and soph receiver Matt Ernest (23 catches) but the loss of HB-punter-place kicker Donny Keiser (knee injury – out until October) will become a field position problem. These two teams are very similar, but Portage has more experience doing what they both do. Portage will be physically smaller than CP's offensive line and there won't be any domination here. But CP has lost 13 of the last 14 to Portage, and the Indians' 29-14 home loss to Merrillville was the worst thing that could happen to Crown Point. The Indians will buckle down and fight hard for a must win on the road.

Wheeler (2-2) 28, Whiting (4-0) 26

Here's the upset of the week. And a test of the 'bounce back' theory. When a team loses a game they weren't supposed to lose looking ahead to a 'big' game, that team usually bounces back and beats the team they were looking ahead to. More that 50% of the time. Wheeler averages almost 200 yards rushing per game and they can control the ball against Whiting's 39.5 point per game offense. The Oilers have only four turnovers all season so you have to beat them. But Whiting hasn't been challenged. So they don't know exactly what they can do late in a game. Plus, Wheeler's coming off that one point loss to Calumet. A game they led by two TDs with a minute to play. You can fold up after that or you can fold somebody else up.

Andrean (4-0) 28, Lowell (3-1) 14

This is a premier game and a contrast of styles as the multiple offense finesse 59ers host the quick running power of Lowell. The devils are a 2-point conversion away from being 4-0 and no one has stopped TB Toby Goetz, who set a Lowell record with 302 yards rushing last week. Andrean was clearly looking ahead, falling 12-0 down to Hammond high before smoking the Cats 33-12. CP, Griffith and Morton have all been able to throw the ball on Lowell's secondary and JR Rodriguez has rushed for 100 yards for two games in a row which balances Andrean's offense. Lowell has kicking (only 2 of 5 extra points were successful last week) and penalty (100 yards last week) problems that they cannot afford in a big game on the road.

Valparaiso (2-2) 31, Chesterton (3-1) 21

The week's best game as the Vikings, who have not lost a game in regulation meet Chesterton which is a double-deflected fourth down pass away from being 4-0 themselves. The Trojans have come from behind twice to beat Griffith 34-21 and LaPorte 21-14. Valparaiso is two short field goals away from being 4-0. The return of 1,000-yard tailback Jeff Brandt has boosted Valpo, but no one has consistently stopped Chesterton all season. At the start of the year, Valparaiso had the best team. They probably still do.

OUT OF TOWN...

East Noble (4-0) at (Allen County) Carroll (4-0)

The big dogs are walking in the Fort Wayne area Friday as East Noble, which was No. 1 for most of the 2003 season, tries to hang with up-and-coming Carroll, a potent scoring machine. Carroll has outscored foes 176-38 including a 56-7 spanking of tradition-rich Goshen. The boys from Noble County are back after losing to Roncalli in the 2003 state 4A title game. The Knights have outscored four foes 126-59, including a 10-7 win over Class 5A power Homestead (3-1). East Noble has only Carroll and Bellmont (4-0) standing between them and a second consecutive undefeated regular season.

Lowell will eye the outcome of this game with some interest. If Lowell wins Sectional nine for the second straight year and East Noble defeats Plymouth (4-0) in sectional 10, the very football friendly towns of Kendallville and Lowell will get together for a little Friday night party in November.

On this night, look for East Noble's big offensive line to fuel a nine-point win.

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Revised: October 06, 2004 .