Week 5 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 14, 2005

WEEK-4 ANALYSIS:  Clark has obviously improved and they won an odd game over Gavit despite 15 penalties for 105 yards. Gavit continues to find a way to lose winnable games. The Judson-Culver game went to overtime which is actually a tie game. But I don't know how many times Rensselaer has to beat Tipton before I realize they are the better team. If Highland lost Andrew Helmer (or he was affected by it) to a concussion, it isn't surprising they didn't score. The rest of the games went pretty much as they were supposed to go although Lowell contributed five first half turnovers to make that game more of a blowout than it should have been. This is the point of the season where teams start becoming themselves. After a month of play, unless there are injury problems, you are what you are. And if you aren't where you need to be, you've got a month to get it going so there needs to be a sense of urgency this week.

WEEK 4 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 43 of 60, 71.7%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 5 (FIVE) PREDICTIONS 9-16-2005

Kankakee Valley (2-2) 27, Gavit (1-3) 14 

HAMMOND - Gavit struggles so much. Before the season, this was a game they should win. But KV rolled up 500 yards (431 rushing) last week and the Kougars' running attack (Dustin Wilson gained 212 yards on 10 caries last week) won't give Gavit's passing attack many possessions. 

Clark (2-2) 28, Calumet (0-4) 20 

GARY – Here's a game Calumet probably has pointed to as a chance to break, through but Clark has developed a good running attack and they can wear the Warriors down. Clark's Michael Ramirez averages 20 yards a catch and they need to win here or all their improvement goes out the window. 

Hobart (3-1) 21, Munster (2-2) 0 

HOBART – I'm not sure of the injury situation at Hobart, but I'm not at all sure of the confidence situation at Munster. The Mustangs have been outscored 85-9 over the last two weeks. Hobart had good balance last week (150 yards rushing and 160 passing), but they are not 100% healthy. Munster is another of the LAC teams that's not quite as good as the hype. 

Whiting (4-0) 41, Wheeler (2-2) 14 

WHITING – Whiting's Mat Kobli is coming off back-to-back 300 yard passing games, but this is one of the teams on the schedule which actually can stay with Whiting for a half. The Bearcats have not developed the running game they hoped to have, but that's the only way they win here. The Whiting defense might welcome a real team with more than 25 players on the other side of the field. Every Whiting game seems like Michigan State playing Hawaii. 

East Chicago (1-3) 26, Elkhart Central (1-3) 22

EAST CHICAGO – The Cardinals have given up 36 points a game but here's a team that wants a shootout. Central has allowed 135 points in four games. EC's only win is Roosevelt. Elkhart's only victim is Riley. This might turn out like the last week's Washington-Bears 9-7 'Instant Classic'. This is a must-win for both and a first-time matchup of some interest. 

New Prairie (2-2) 28, Jimtown (4-0) 27 

ELKHART – This is a good old-fashioned upset. Jimtown has allowed 27 points all season but they have not seen a running attack like NP, which has lost by seven to 5A LaPorte (4-0) and in 2 OTs against 4A Washington (1-3). Again, Jimtown should win but New Prairie will. I think New Prairie is becoming the equal of Jimtown in this conference. 

Valparaiso (2-2) 35, Chesterton (0-4) 14 

CHESTERTON – This is one of Chesterton's final chances (they still have Portage, CP and Merrillville) during the regular season because they might be able to catch Valpo on a rebound after the Viking win over undefeated Michigan City. I love the Vikings' running game here but the Trojans at home need this one badly and it could be much closer than the score I'm predicting. 

Merrillville (3-1) 41, Michigan City (3-1) 7 

MICHIGAN CITY - I think the Pirates play better on the road sometimes and this will be one of those times. Michigan City doesn't have a passing attack and they are facing a Merrillville team that has allowed 26 points in four games. This is one of those nights where the Wolves' measuring stick won't be the final score but how well they played. 

LaPorte (4-0) 52, Lake Central (2-2) 28 

LaPORTE - Lake Central is simply finding out how tough it is to play in the DAC. They go from Portage to Crown Point to LaPorte and the Slicers are a bad match-up. LaPorte has a running back in Airrence Shark and a QB in Lance (Sonny) Juergensen that LC can't stop for very long. Newcomers vastly underestimate how tough it is in the DAC. You can't win just because you want to. It's 12 years later and CP still isn't a consistent contender in the DAC. 

Griffith (4-0) 56, Morton (3-1) 21 

GRIFFITH – Morton took advantage of a crippled team last week (as they should have) to win 32-13. But Griffith isn't hurting. The Panthers are strong where Morton is weak and this isn't a good matchup. Griffith can run and Morton can't stop the run. Griffith also has scored 190 points in four games. The Governors should not judge themselves by what will happen to them Friday because they'll get two shots at Griffith. Coaches learn not to invest the house in the regular season match against a league rival who is also a sectional rival. Morton is looking at a 6-2 regular season which they should consider a huge improvement. 

Rensselaer (4-0) 21, Twin Lakes (3-1) 14 

RENSSELAER – Rensselaer averages 40 points a game but TL has given up just 22 all season. Still, the speed of the Rensselaer attack should eventually prevail here. There is a chance for an upset here though as Rensselaer is coming off two big games with North Judson and Tipton. But you get the feeling the Bombers are pretty consistent. 

North Judson (2-2) 27, North Newton (2-2) 21 

MOROCCO – Judson has had injury problems and they haven't been right all year. The Jays have allowed more points than they've scored. But so has North Newton. This is a very difficult game for Judson because they have defeated Newton so many (13 times in 10 years) times. Here's another potential upset and the first of potentially two meetings so Newton is just looking for information here. 

Andrean (4-0) 21, Lowell (1-3) 7 

LOWELL – It's funny how when Highland's best player or Crown Point's best player doesn't play, it's almost front page sports news in NW Indiana but when Lowell loses the top player in the LAC (Jeff Clemens) and a state finalist wrestler and all-league defender (Ethan Winel), no one knows it. It isn't certain whether the duo can return this week, but Lowell will call all hands on deck against a 59er squad that has dominated them (Lowell has only beaten Andrean once in history) since they came into the LAC. The offensive line of Andrean should be able to control a low-scoring game here as the 59ers and new QB Jesse Repay get their first serious road test of the year. 

Crown Point (4-0) 16, Portage (2-2) 10 

PORTAGE – Another major test for CP on the artificial turf over in Porter County. Portage has dominated this series and these are almost mirror-image teams with a lot of the same formations. Portage has led all four games they played so far and actually should be 4-0. New QB Erik Rhein will have to be sharp against the Bulldogs' '35' defense, but Portage also uses some of that. CP has had a 13-4 turnover edge, a NW Indiana leading eight field goals and three shutouts in a row. The scoreless streak ends but the winning streak doesn't. But remember, this is a fact-finding mission for both sides. These two are also sectional rivals. 

STATE GAME OF THE WEEK... 

3A No. 7 Bishop Luers (3-1) at 5A No. 2 Snider (4-0) 

FORT WAYNE– Luers lost to Fort Wayne South (4-0) 31-7 but bounced back with a 37-7 win over Harding. QB Erik Kumming ran for one TD and threw for two as Luers got back on track in the Summit Athletic Conference. The Knights have a balanced attack this year and they want to keep the Snider defense off balance. But Snider has dominated everyone by a combined score of 192-49 and they run the ball almost exclusively. Senior halfback MiQuale Lewis gained 208 yards rushing and scored 6 TDs last week in a 63-14 win over Elmhurst. The Greyhounds are 8-2 against Luers in the last 10 years and they won 51-0 last year when Snider went to the state title game. The offensive line and the backs wear you down and it's hard to match their defensive speed. These are two of the three (4A No. 3 Dwenger is the other) perennial powerhouses in Fort Wayne and they could fill Fort Wayne's Spuller Stadium for the match of top coaches Russ Issacs (155-24) of Snider and Matt Lindsay (163-70) of Luers. Snider was the No. 1 offensive team in the state last season and they haven't lost much. You've got to make them play from behind but it's tough to do. 3A Luers can pull out all the strategic stops because they won't see 5A Snider again. But it would take a carbon copy (Read: Warren Central) to dust off Snider. 

Snider 38, Bishop Luers 16

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Revised: September 16, 2005 .