Week 5 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

September 15, 2009

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK FOUR (4), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 7 = 63.6%;  Season: 41-15, 73.2%
The Pick	The Result
Calumet 27, River Forest 8	Calumet 67-0
Bishop Noll 56, Lake Station 12	Bishop Noll 49-6
East Chicago 33, Gavit 14	East Chicago 28-7
Clark 44, Lew Wallace 12	Clark 40-8
Hobart 21, KV 14	Kankakee Valley 12-7 (wrong)
ANDREAN 35, Munster 28	Munster 19-14 (wrong)
LOWELL 34, Griffith 14	LOWELL 35-19
Valparaiso  30, Michigan City 20	Michigan City 21-17  (wrong)
Chesterton  40, LaPorte 28	Chesterton 38-14
LC 24, CP 20	CROWN POINT 23-21 (wrong)
MERRILLVILLE 41, Portage 30	MERRILLVILLE 49-27

WEEK (4) FOUR ANALYSIS:  A few games turned in the fourth quarter with Munster rallying from 14 down to beat Andrean and Michigan City coming from 10 points behind to defeat Valparaiso.  CP rallied to beat Lake Central but that game could have gone either way.  Note that three of the four incorrect picks and come-from-behind decisions were in the Duneland Conference.  That's an example of how close that league seems to be talent-wise this year.

 

The other leagues seem lopsided, with Gary West Side obviously the best team in Gary, and Morton clearly the top team in Hammond.  If Wheeler doesn't win the Greater South Shore Conference there should be an investigation.

 

It also seems like a high-scoring season.  LaPorte always plays 'Arena Football,' but Lowell vs. Griffith shouldn't total 54 points.  Maybe CP-LC could be 23-21 and Merrillville-Portage most definitely should not be 49-27.

 

Reasons?  It's a nice year for quarterbacks, even the runners like Lowell's Ray Skamay, Chesterton's Jon Watson and Griffith's Cal Bonewits.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

For week five, you've got to leave out some obvious picks.  Wheeler (4-0) can't lose to South Central (0-4).  Don't you dare pick that game.  Lew Wallace will be lucky to find North Putnam for a 4:00 p.m. Saturday game.  Are they SURE they can't play Bowman?

Highland (1-3) at Lowell (4-0)?  Only if you really need to pad your selection record.  That leaves 14 games and some very even match ups.
  
WEEK FIVE
 

Gavit (0-4) at Gary Roosevelt (0-4)

GARY:  Somebody's got to win.  Right?  They'll play this one in the sunlight Saturday afternoon at 2:00 p.m.  Roosevelt has given up 184 points (46.0) in four games.  They can't stop the rain.  Gavit isn't quite that bad.  They lost to Calumet in overtime.  Still, this game may be harder to watch than Jay Cutler.

Gavit 35, Roosevelt 12


East Chicago (1-3) at Clark (3-1)

HAMMOND:  Clark is 3-1 even though they did lose by 38 to Morton.  But I think the Cardinals' schedule has been much tougher.  East Chicago, which won for the first time last week, starts a winning streak here on the world's shortest road trip.  It takes exactly 527 seconds to drive from EC to Clark.

East Chicago 32, Clark 20


Hammond (3-1) at Gary West Side (3-1)

GARY:  If there was a Gary-Hammond city league (which there should be), this game would be for first place.  Both teams average 30 points a game.  Hammond should win this, but I'm going with the passing attack of West Side.  If there's an upset this week, here it is.

Gary West Side 33, Hammond 28


River Forest (1-3) at North Newton (0-4)

MOROCCO:  The Ingots jumped up and smacked Lake Station two weeks ago.  North Newton has been shut out twice in a row.  The Spartans haven't scored a point this month, but River Forest got beat 67-0 last week.  The boys know the numbers, but they also know that bad teams need to seize the opportunity to win because there aren't many chances.  The Newton County boys have lost four in a row, but so has Jay Cutler.

North Newton 20, River Forest 12


Whiting (2-2) at Bishop Noll (2-2)

HAMMOND:  Next door neighbors battle it out next to the toll way.  Whiting is hard to read and Bishop Noll plays a tougher schedule including Andrean (2-2) and Munster (4-0).  This is a strength of schedule pick and Noll has played a vastly tougher schedule.

Bishop Noll 35, Whiting 28


Twin Lakes (2-2) at Rensselaer (3-1)

RENSSELAER:  Twin Lakes is 3A but they aren't going to be able to handle a Rensselaer team that took its first loss from undefeated Tipton last week.  Twin Lakes isn't going to have much offense and Rensselaer is going to be angrier than Taylor Swift's mom.

Rensselaer 26, Twin Lakes 12


Hobart (1-3) at ANDREAN (2-2)

MERRILLVILLE:   Hobart needs a win badly, but they don't score that many points and no one has held Andrean under 14.  The 59ers can throw and the Brickies will have a difficult time stopping it.  Tradition says it will be close, but the Brickies don't have much of an offense yet and nobody has really stopped the 59ers.

ANDREAN 28, Hobart 14


Kankakee Valley (1-3) at Griffith (1-3)

GRIFFITH:  Both these teams are a little better than the record.  KV has lost to Wheeler (4-0) and Lowell (4-0).  But anybody who saw Griffith last week knows they're improving dramatically.  The Panthers are mounting a second half charge as they always seem to do.

Griffith 35, Kankakee Valley 7


Munster (4-0) at Morton (3-1)

HAMMOND:  Morton got the season-opening win over Griffith, but could not hold on to upset Lowell.  Munster trailed Andrean 14-0 before rallying to win 19-14.  I think this is a very good match up for Morton, which has the speed to cover Munster's receivers.  Get your popcorn ready.

Morton 34, Munster 31


Lake Central (1-3) at LaPorte (3-1)

LaPORTE:  The Slicers took their first loss last week and they'll get home and try to bounce back.  You don't want to drive an hour to play at LaPorte.  This one could get uglier than a Serena Williams tennis match.  You have to hold the ball here because defensively, Lake Central may be overwhelmed.

LaPorte 40, Lake Central 21
 

Valparaiso (1-3) at Chesterton (3-1)

CHESTERTON:  Chesterton will run the ball.  Can you beat them?  Only if you can stop them from running the ball.  That's like stopping Republicans from making things up about Obama.  Chesterton defeated Valpo twice last year, but that can't go on.  Valpo can stop the run.  At the start of the year, this wouldn't have been an upset.

Valparaiso 16, Chesterton 14


CROWN POINT (2-2) at Portage (2-2)

PORTAGE:  CP's losses have been to Lowell (4-0) and Merrillville (3-1).  But Portage's losses have been to St. Rita (3-0) and Merrillville (3-1).  High score alert.  Nobody's held Portage under 20 points, but Crown Point is improving their running and throwing.  You saw Michigan play Notre Dame last week?  That's what we have here.

Portage 31, CROWN POINT 27


MERRILLVILLE (3-1) at Michigan City (4-0)

MICHIGAN CITY:  Michigan City has never been 5-0 and they had to rally from 10 points behind last week to be 4-0.  Merrillville is on a winning streak, too, but they are giving up an uncomfortable amount of points.  I just don't think the Wolves can stop Merrillville, which has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the state.

MERRILLVILLE 34, Michigan City 21

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