Week 5 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-4, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Sept. 9-10, 2011 Wrong - 4; Right - 6 = 60.0%
The Pick	The Result
Wheeler 30, North Newton 6	Wheeler 49-0
Gavit 28, East Chicago 12	(wrong) EC 44-14
River Forest 21, Calumet 13	River Forest 34-7
Hobart 35, KV 14	(wrong) KV 22-19 (OT)
Whiting 21, South Central 14	Whiting 40-20
Morton 34, Highland 14	Morton 35-20
Chesterton 34, LaPorte 14	Chesterton 31-7
MERRILLVILLE 27, Portage 7	(wrong) Portage 17-16
CROWN POINT 24, LC 17	(wrong) LC 26-7
LOWELL 20, Griffith 17	LOWELL 18-13

WEEK FOUR (4) ANALYSIS: I think the weather affected play in week four. It certainly had an effect at Merrillville where the Pirates, trying to rally in the rain, fell one point short in an upset that may cost Merrillville any chance at the Duneland conference title. Portage, unable to pass without their starting QB, wasn't affected by the rain. Merrillville, which completed 24 passes in week three, was handcuffed in week four. And CP never plays well in the rain and mud, probably because they rely on being able to throw from multiple formations. People who don't think rain and mud affects a high school football game are folks who don't stand on the sidelines. I've picked Gavit wrong every week so far and KV's upset of Hobart was, by far, the upset of the year. KV has just one senior football player in the entire program.

BEST PICK: Lowell over Griffith by almost the exact score. If the boys had made extra points, the score would have been 21-14. Both teams stayed totally in character.

2011 Season, 1st 4-weeks: 29 of 46 = 62.9%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (5) FIVE: In golf they call the third round of a four-round tournament, 'moving day' when you better start closing the gap on the leader or you're not going to win anything. It's moving day in conference play. Teams that take a second or third loss in league play can start pointing to the sectional, because there won't be enough time to come back. We may also be getting into real football weather. No rain. No 92 degrees. Just cool and dry. Where your best comes out if it's in you. Coaches and media tend to underestimate the effect of weather. Not only are there 'bad weather' teams that don't need to throw. There are 'cold weather teams' with a lot of two-way players (Griffith, LaPorte, Lowell, South Central, Whiting) that benefit greatly from cool weather where their iron men, hardened by the fire of August games, rebound with durability late in games in September, October and November.

Some games seem lopsided, although this year, I have to be careful with that. A few teams are giant killers one week and road kill the next. With that said, I'm leaving out Lowell and Highland. Highland's only won four games in four years. Hammond is a prohibitive favorite over Gary West Side and Gary Roosevelt has no real chance against Gavit. I'm also calling a moratorium on Boone Grove games until they win one. Other than that, there's some very difficult games to pick.

Lake Station (0-4) at Calumet (0-4):

GARY (09-16-2011) Somebody's got to win here and I'd have sworn it would be Calumet until they lost by four TDs to River Forest last week. Calumet's allowed 138 points and they must be having some numbers problems to be getting beaten this badly. Lake Station will make this close. A game between winless teams is more emotional than a game between undefeated teams. Unbeaten teams know they will probably eventually lose. Winless teams do not know and may not believe they will win a game all year.

Calumet 27, Lake Station 21

Whiting (2-2) at Bishop Noll (2-2):

HAMMOND (09-16-2011) Hard to tell about Noll. They've beaten two 0-4 teams. Whiting got bombed by Wheeler, but I think they're rounding into shape. Who is AJ Veloz? I don't know, but he threw for four Whiting TDs last week. Remember. Perfect conditions this Friday. Everybody feels good. Running the ball is so 'November'. This week is all about the pass.

Whiting 35, Bishop Noll 21

East Chicago (2-2) at Clark (3-1):

HAMMOND (09-16-2011) East Chicago should be better than they've shown. But if you look at the results, they've lost big to Hammond (4-0) and Lake Central (4-0). And Clark's only loss is to Morton (4-0). You can look good for weeks against the pass and then conditions are right and your secondary gets roasted like Notre Dame's was against Michigan. I just think this is a night for East Chicago QB Everett Coleman to show off.

East Chicago 34, Clark 28

North Judson (3-1) at Pioneer (4-0):

ROYAL CENTER (09-16-2011) Pioneer is averaging 30 points a game with a ground-based attack. But Judson can run and throw and conditions will be the best they've been all season this week. Two things are indisputable truths. 1.) You don't know where Royal Center is, and 2.) You don't pick against Pioneer. Did you know they are 106-19 in the last 11 seasons? I didn't. But if there's a major upset this week, here it is. Judson did defeat Pioneer in 2008.

North Judson 28, Pioneer 21

Kankakee Valley (1-3) at Griffith (2-2):

GRIFFITH (09-16-2011) You never know how good a team is until they win their first game. Then they can approach all they can be. Remember that KV led Lowell at the half the week before. The Kougars, from a distance, seem to be improving. With that said, even though KV won for the first time last week, I can imagine no alternate universe where the Kougars win at Griffith this Friday. Griffith is much too hard a team for a foe with no seniors.

Griffith 42, Kankakee Valley 14

Munster (1-3) at Morton (4-0):

HAMMOND (09-16-2011) Keep in mind, Munster has lost to Andrean (4-0), Lake Central (4-0) and Chesterton (3-1) so they aren't that bad. Keep that in mind while you pick Morton to win this game. I don't think the Mustangs have the speed on offense to do much here and Morton's offense has opened up in recent weeks. And remember the theme this week. 60 degrees and dry. Perfect weather for a wide open outside-the-hash marks offense.

Morton 34, Munster 17

Merrillville (1-3) at Michigan City (1-3):

MICHIGAN CITY (09-16-2011) In a normal year, you don't even pick this game. MC made a nice rally last week against Valparaiso, scoring 21 points in five minutes before losing 38-21. They have a future. But on a dry, fast field, that future is not this Friday. Merrillville still can't figure out how they lost last week and they are much better than the 1-3 record would suggest.

MERRILLVILLE 42, Michigan City 21

Crown Point (2-2) at Portage (1-3):

PORTAGE (09-16-2011) All credit to Portage for not giving up after an 0-3 start, but they're now the Indianapolis Colts facing a significant time without the guy they expected to play QB. You can't win consistently in 5A without throwing the ball. CP has been having trouble with the passing game. A season-low three completions last week. Look for some improvement this week.

CROWN POINT 23, Portage 10

Hobart (1-3) at ANDREAN (4-0):

MERRILLVILLE (09-16-2011) This is a questionable selection, too. Why pick this game? There's not a lot of ways that Hobart can beat the 59ers. Hobart lost 22-19 in overtime last week at home to KV and there may be a 'free fall' here. There will be a week this year where the Brickies throw a big scare into a better team because they are talented at the lower levels. Andrean has to develop more of a passing game for later in the year when Griffith and Lowell stack the line against them. Tonight may be the night they work on that.

ANDREAN 30, Hobart 7

Wheeler (4-0) at South Central (2-2):

UNION MILLS (09-17-2011) The Bearcats head to LaPorte County for a Saturday night special and last week's results don't bode well for this one. SC gave up four TD passes on a wet night to Whiting's AJ Veloz? What are they going to do against Wheeler's Nick Napinski, who has 11 TD passes in four games? If you can consistently develop passers in 1A, 2A and 3A, you will always win big because small schools can't have four and five quality defensive backs. With Napinski passing and SC's Ethan Biggs (27 carries, 113 yards last week) running, here's a made-for-TV show.

Wheeler 49, South Central 28

LAKE CENTRAL (4-0) at LaPORTE (2-2):

LaPORTE (09-16-2011) LC rides a defense which has scored seven TDs and the running of RB-QB David Yancey. But you all know that unless you have three or four Division I linemen (see Warren Central) you can't win consistently in Class 5A without a passing attack. LC is Tim Tebow. Everybody wants them to be great before they are because they are such a good story. This is LC's first game outside Lake County (they have played 3 in a row at home) and LaPorte is a difficult place to play. But the Slicers can't pass the ball, either. Not even a little. And you have to throw against the LC 'D' or you have no chance. Don't bet on this game either way.

LAKE CENTRAL 20, LaPorte 14

Valparaiso (2-2) at Chesterton (3-1):

CHESTERTON (09-16-2011) Paul Andrie was 16 of 20 last week for Valpo in a 38-21 win over Michigan City. Chesterton rolled up 328 yards rushing in a 31-7 win over LaPorte, a game that was 31-0 until the final minutes. The eye-opener is that the Trojans only threw two passes last week, and in good weather especially, you simply must throw the ball at this level. Who is Valparaiso's Ryan Nix (6-2, 190)? Five extra points, a field goal, six catches for 136 yards. Last week. One game? Same guy? Now, offensive lines control high school games and Valpo has lost a starting offensive lineman for the season. But Andrie throws the ball so well I'm going with them anyway.

Valparaiso 28, Chesterton 27