Week 6 Picks:  2003 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

WEEK FIVE (5) ANALYSIS:  Andrean is clearly better than Lowell. That was just a bad pick. For Lowell to win would have been an upset and without all the fumbles, they did have a chance. Calumet must have major injury problems to get shut out by Clark. Gavit scored late to beat KV. It could have gone either way.   The big-time losses for River Forest and Rensselaer hint that this may not be a strong area this season in football. 

2002 Regular season (9 weeks) 85 of 109,  77.9%
2002 Playoffs:   78 of 106,  73.5%
Final 2002 (15 weeks) 163 of 215, 75.9%

2003 (Week one) 8 of 12, 66.7%
2003 (Week two) 9 of 12, 75%
2003 (Week three)  6 of 12,  50%
2003 (Week four) 12 of 12, 100%
2003 (Week five) 9 of 12, 75%
2003 Season:  44 of 60,  73.3%

WEEK SIX (6): Sept. 26, 2003

A very mixed bag of games.  North Newton has little chance at River Forest and Hammond has even less chance at Lowell.  But some matchups like Calumet-Lake Station and Lake Central-Michigan City could be close with hungry teams looking for rare wins.  Andrean and Griffith should be watching the Lafayette-area match of Twin Lakes (5-0) and Benton Central (3-2), two potential regional foes.

Bishop Noll (3-2) 28, Whiting (2-3) 26
Noll can run on Whiting and the Oilers, with quarterback Matt Kobli  (47 of 87, 684 yards), should be able to throw against Noll.  This game could go either way and Noll is a little better on conversions.

Wheeler (5-0) 42, Gavit (2-3) 20
Gavit QB Jake Galik was 10-of-23 for 230 yards last week and the Gladiators are averaging almost 400 yards a game.  But the rushing totals for Munster (456), Noll (414) and KV (308) against Gavit are overwhelming.  Wheeler runner Andrew Patten (97 carries, 754 yards) is the best that Gavit will see.

Lake Station (0-5) 20, Calumet (1-4) 12
It's hard to know who is injured and who is not on losing teams because they are not highly publicized.  But Calumet may be down to their third string QB and Lake Station got key runner Neal Anderson off the injury list last week.  Both teams have given up a lot of rushing yards.  Calumet may be the better team, but Lake Station beat the Warriors 24-6 last year.

Griffith (2-3) 35, Highland (3-2) 28
Griffith's pass defense has been poor all season, but Highland nearly gave up 200 rushing yards to Hammond.  Griffith gains almost 330 yards per game rushing and they have starting QB Rich Lehmann (4 carries, 118 yards, 3 TDS last week) back.  Highland has not played any option teams and does not  have enough defensively to shut down Griffith.

ANDREAN (5-0) 28, Hobart (2-3) 14
Hobart coach Wally McCormack knows Andrean better than anybody since he coached there last year.  Hobart needs three or four turnovers to win this game and Andrean has not shown any turnover problems. This game means more to the Brickies than it does to Andrean, but Hobart has only scored 93 points in five games and, even with a good defensive effort, they can't hold the 59ers under 20 points.

Munster (5-0) 35, Morton (2-3) 7
Morton was respectable against Griffith in a 49-28 loss last week, but that shouldn't hide the reality that they've been crushed 35-0, 42-7 and 49-28 in recent weeks.  Morton has allowed 169 points and 1400 yards in the last four games.  Munster's balanced pass-run attack will hand the Governors another solid defeat.

LAKE CENTRAL (1-4) 28, Michigan City (2-3) 21
Michigan City is very hungry for a DAC win.  They have not won a league game in 3 years but they were down only 14-7 to Merrillville at the half last week before losing 35-14. Lake Central was crushed 48-7 at LaPorte last week and they have lost four in a row.  Both teams need this one badly or they may not win again.  At home, LC, crippled by injury, will prevail in the late going.

CROWN POINT (3-2) 28, Valparaiso (2-3) 14
Both teams took solid defeats last week, but the Bulldogs' 49-0 loss to Portage probably was more than solid.  Valpo QB Jon Moon completed 21 of 45 last week for 251 yards, but that might indicate that VHS doesn't have the physical strength to run the ball.  CP has had the same problem, but they have Matt Cowan, who was held to 2-of-12 passing in one half of play last week.  CP hasn't beaten Valpo in six years and they won't embarrass themselves again in front of a big home crowd.

Wheeler (4-0) 35, Whiting (2-2) 21
Whiting scored 46 on Lake Station but they won't have the ball that much against Wheeler's top rushing (1,156 yards rushing in 4 games) attack.  Whiting has quick strike capability, but that's exactly the offense that won't work against a dominant ground team.  Wheeler has outscored four foes by a combined score of 152-41.

Kankakee Valley (1-4) 28, Clark (2-3) 20
Clark got three rushing TDs from Dale Murzyn to beat Calumet 20-0 last week while KV was losing in the final moments at Gavit.  KV has lost 16-7, 20-14 and 26-21.  They aren't as bad as their record would indicate.  Clark has scored only 91 points all year against questionable defenses.

MERRILLVILLE (3-2) 16, LaPorte (2-3) 13
LaPorte has Division I skill position players, but Merrillville has top-level defensive backs.  New LaPorte QB Lance Jurgensen is 31 of 69, for 591 yards in his last three games. Merrillville has lost by 17 to Portage (5-0) and by one in OT to Crown Point (3-2).  The Pirates have allowed just 81 yards (16.2 per game) and they held Portage (42 ppg.) to a season-low 24 points.  But the question still stands: How can a team beat Valparaiso and Lake Central both by four touchdowns and lose to New Prairie by 25 points in the same season?

Portage (5-0) 38, Chesterton (4-1) 17
Portage is very aware that Chesterton beat them 42-40 last year when the Indians were undefeated.  But this is an entirely different Portage team.  The speed of Antoine Brown in the backfield and Milton Rivera on the outside opens up a lot of things and the Indian lines are stronger than they were last year.  Portage has not faced an option team so that's the way to go with Trojan senior QB Ryan Kelley. QB Casey Martin has tossed six TDs backing up Kelley but the Trojans problem will be keeping Portage off the scoreboard. Chesterton has given up 815 yards rushing and Brown has run for over 800 yards.  I think Chesterton is the second best team in northwest Indiana, but I'd be surprised if this one was close in the end.

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Revised: June 08, 2004 .