Week 6 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 21, 2005

WEEK-5 ANALYSIS:  New Prairie had a shot at upsetting Jimtown, but they gave up a 92-yard kickoff return to start the second half and lost a 10-6 lead. I have no explanation for Clark, which had been playing well, not being able to score on Calumet. Clearly, this is not going to be a good season for East Chicago, which gave up three safeties and three interceptions against Elkhart Central (2-3). North Newton lost their starting QB (possible ACL) and that's why that spread got wider. Portage is a little shorthanded personnel-wise or they might have beaten Crown Point. The DAC went 'old school' as Valparaiso and Merrillville dominated their foes. Morton can't beat Griffith and Lowell can't beat Andrean. Whiting needed a close game and it will help them that they got one. The score predictions should get better as the season goes on because teams develop more of a track record.

WEEK 5 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 52 of 74, 71.2.7%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 6 (SIX) PREDICTIONS 9-23-2005

Kankakee Valley (3-2) 20, Clark (2-3) 12 

HAMMOND - Ever since KV gained 200 yards rushing on undefeated Rensselaer, they have rolled over people, outscoring three foes 137-30. To be fair, those three foes are about as tough as the Kansas City Royals but three wins is three wins. Clark got smoked out by winless Calumet last week, but KV won't throw the ball that much and Clark does not have the offense to win here. 

Whiting (5-0) 42, Bishop Noll (3-2) 7 

HAMMOND – Here's a game that could be affected by the rain if it comes in on time. Otherwise, Noll couldn't stop Whiting with a court order. The Oilers got off to a very slow start last week against Wheeler and that won't happen twice in a row. Noll is over .500 because of a very weak schedule. They have allowed far more points than they've scored and anyone with an offense can wear out the end zone on the young Warriors. 

Calumet (1-4) 28, Lake Station (1-4) 14 

LAKE STATION – Both teams have serious depth problems, but Calumet has a lot more weapons. Lake Station has been outscored 134-62 and I sense they have more depth and injury problems than Calumet does. Calumet, which is committed to a spread offense with QB Mike Alvarado, should roll on here. 

Rensselaer (5-0) 35, West Lafayette (2-3) 17 

WEST LAFAYETTE – West Lafayette's losses have all been by 10 points or less but the Bombers have won every game by 10 points or more. Rensselaer has allowed just 37 points all season and WL just doesn't have the attack to hang in here, even at home. 

North Newton (2-3) 41, River Forest (0-5) 21 

HOBART TOWNSHIP – RF's passing attack has posted 72 points in the last three games, but they have to win a shootout. North Newton has played a significantly tougher schedule but this game will be much closer if QB Rich Scheidt cannot play for the Spartans. 

John Glenn (4-1) 27, South Central (3-2) 7 

WALKERTON – South Central has played well this year but not this well. Glenn has lost only 26-7 to Jimtown (5-0) and they have crushed everyone else. Glenn led 49-0 at the half last week at Triton. SC can't run the ball on Glenn so this score may be even larger. 

Portage (2-3) 30, Chesterton (0-5) 20 

CHESTERTON – This is a difficult game to pick because of Portage's shortages at running back and Chesterton's spread passing game. Chesterton has allowed 202 points largely because they throw the ball a ton and give up a lot of possessions. But unless Portage fixes their RB shortage and kicking problems, they'll be giving the ball right back. No doubt this will be a shootout, but Portage is more solid defensively. If it rains, it could be 50-20. 

Michigan City (3-2) 42, Lake Central (2-3) 41 

ST. JOHN - LC really doesn't stop the run well and MC doesn't stop the pass. Lake Central can pass and Michigan City can run. Folks could be running the 100-yard dash here like it was the Olympic trials. Michigan City can control the game a little better with the rushing attack but LC has the better kicker. Robert Fics may visit the end zone more than President Bush has been to New Orleans and he'll get more done. Flip a coin and give it to the team with the better offensive line. 

Munster (2-3) 26, Morton (3-2) 21 

MUNSTER - Here's the upset of the week, even though Munster has won 10 in a row from Morton. Morton has given up 800 yards rushing in the last three games and that's a major problem. Munster has faced Griffith and Hobart in the last two weeks and they've dealt with physical squads. Munster isn't strong against the run but Morton doesn't run the ball. The key with all city schools is they get beat up in the lines as the season goes on. This is a game set up for a Munster upset. 

North Judson (3-2) 28, Brebeuf Jesuit (4-1) 21 

NORTH JUDSON – This game will be prime-time because they play it on Saturday night at 6:30 p.m., which allows other players from other schools to come and watch. Brebuef was shocked by Culver Academy 21-10 last week and they'll come up from Indianapolis ready to bounce back. But Judson runs the ball and this one may be played in the rain. 

Andrean (5-0) 16, Hobart (4-1) 14 

MERRILLVILLE – Hobart averages 27 points a game but Andrean has shut out Hammond and Lowell back-to-back. Both of these teams have good size and strength and that's what will be on display, especially if the field is wet. If you think defense is boring, this game could be duller than a 24-hour “One Tree Hill” marathon. There is little chance that a lot of points will be scored on this night, especially with two rookie QBs starting. I like the offensive line of Andrean winning a field position game. 

Crown Point (5-0) 23, Valparaiso (3-2) 10 

CROWN POINT – It is a pivotal night in the DAC as either LaPorte and Crown Point set up a championship game on Sept. 30 or Valpo and Merrillville force a four-way league tie for first place. Valparaiso will line up and run right at Crown Point's strength, their five linebacker '35' defense. The Bulldogs have that Chicago Bears' offense which means they score when the defense and special teams sets them up. But Valpo, which has allowed just 65 points all year, is 3-2 because they are a run-oriented squad that hasn't been able to post high scores consistently either. Valpo needs to perfect the short passing game this week. Not impossible, but not likely. 

Merrillville (4-1) 33, LaPorte (5-0) 27 

MERRILLVILLE – LaPorte has the top offense in the DAC. Merrillville, with all due respect to Crown Point, has the top defense. The question is whether LaPorte tailback Airrence Shark (5-10, 220) can run on the Pirates' defense, which has allowed 33 points all season. If he gets stopped, LaPorte has to throw into a very active secondary and against a strong rush. LaPorte will try to disrupt the Pirates' two-man backfield of Evan Parker and James Aldridge with many different defensive fronts but their gambling style will give up big plays. There's more WMDs on these two squads than we found in the entire Iraqi desert. Both teams have strong kickers, top runners and capable passers. Merrillville has a stronger offensive line which will offset LaPorte advantages in kicking. 

STATE GAME OF THE WEEK...

5A Mishawaka (5-0) at 3A (Mishawaka) Marian (5-0) 

MISHAWAKA – I believe this is the first time in history that both of these neighbor schools have been undefeated with as many as five wins when they met.  Marian has outscored five foes 217-48 while Mishawaka has outpointed five losers 156-46. The oddity here is that both teams have five wins over schools with losing records. Neither one of them has played anybody yet and they aren't sure if they're going to be facing a powerhouse Friday night. 

You'll note that these two teams do play unlike Andrean and Merrillville, who haven't met since the late 90s. I would hope that when the LAC breaks up in 2006, that Merrillville and Andrean get together. Both the Pirates and 59ers play non conference games that are of little interest while a Merrillville-Andrean game would draw the sellout crowd that Marian-Mishawaka will draw Friday. 3A Andrean and 5A Merrillville may want the tape of this game for future reference. 

Mishawaka senior Nick Turrell (5-9, 190) has carried 82 times for 450 yards and the Cavemen are a running and run defense team with linebacker John Carlson (6-0, 212) and defensive end Josh Fulton (6-4, 205) bringing two-years of experience to the defensive front. 

Marian has 16 starters back off a 6-5 team and halfback Nick DiCicco (6-0, 181) carried 15 times for 137 yards last week in a 55-20 win over Riley. But there will be a lot of uncertainty on Mishawaka's Steele Field Friday because neither team has truly played anybody so far. Since the series resumed in 2003, Mishawaka has won the last two games and, even though Marian's option is tough to simulate and this would be a monster win for the Knights with the state tournament four weeks away, Mishawaka should pull away late to win here. 

Mishawaka 27, Marian 16

Copyright © 2005 USA-365.com and Meyer Multimedia Services, a division of Meyer Broadcasting Corp.  All rights reserved.
Revised: September 21, 2005 .