Week 6 Football Picks

WEEK 5, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 6 = 60.0%
The Pick	The Result
Jimtown 34, New Prairie 20	Correct... Jimtown 35-24
North Newton 35, River Forest 14	Correct... North Newton 20-6
Munster 23, Morton 20	Wrong... Morton 21-14
Chesterton 38, Valparaiso 20	Wrong... Valparaiso 28-20
Whiting 41, Bishop Noll 28	Correct... Whiting 49-26
Wheeler 42, South Central 8	Correct... Wheeler 69-7
LaPorte 28, Lake Central 24	Wrong... Lake Central 31-28
Merrillville 26, Michigan City 14	Correct... Merrillville 35-7
Andrean 28, Hobart 26	Wrong... Hobart 16-0
Crown Point 16, Portage 7	Correct... Crown Point 27-0

WEEK 5 (FIVE) RECAP MID-SEASON FROM 9/14: For Chesterton to rush for 300 yards on Valpo and still lose is hard to do. That outcome is a major surprise. I thought Morton was the better team in the match up with Munster (and said so last week), but Munster didn't play well enough to beat the Governors. Andrean over Hobart was an upset pick based on style of play and the fact that Andrean was at home. It never panned out in any way. And LaPorte, which led 21-7 at the half and still lost, is probably still asking how they lost to Lake Central.

Best pick of the week? None, really. The closeness of the predictions and the finals in the Jimtown-New Prairie and Whiting-Noll games is noteworthy, but those weren't earthshaking, ground-breaking selections. It's no great shakes to get six out of 10.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 4) 10 of 11   = 90.9%
2007 (Week 5) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (overall) 40 of 57   = 70.1%
2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 6 (SIX) PICKS, 09-21-2007

MERRILLVILLE (09-21-2007) - This is a strong week of games in NW Indiana with rivals Lowell and Hobart playing, plus cross-town rivals Morton and Hammond meeting. State-wide, 5A No. 5 Columbus North (5-0) travels to play at No. 6 Pike (5-0). Class 3A No. 1 Heritage Hills (5-0) challenges 3A No. 10 Gibson Southern (5-0). And the unofficial championship of Elkhart sends 2A No. 1 Jimtown (5-0) to 4A No. 10 Concord (4-1) in what should be a telling cross-class matchup.

Those who think the polls are crazy are having a field day with this week's 5A Top-10. Class 5A No. 9 Merrillville (4-1) beat Class 5A No. 7 Warren Central (3-2). The game was at Merrillville and it was the season opener. But 5A No. 8 Crown Point (4-1) defeated Merrillville 20-17 in overtime. Even if, for purposes of analysis, you consider an overtime game a tie, it's hard to logic those three rankings out.

The only explanation that makes sense is that in just five games, you have an illegitimate sample. You can't makes any learned and balanced conclusions off five games so you have to go down a logic path'. Those can be scary. There are 'straight line logic' people who believe that since Indiana University is 3-0 and Notre Dame is 0-3 in Division I college football, that Indiana would beat Notre Dame. That's 'straight line logic' which considers no variables. At the other end of the spectrum are people who would tell you that the Chicago Cubs cannot win the World Series because its the Cubs and they haven't won in 100 years.

That's 'variable logic'. Unlike the Indiana-Notre Dame people who base everything on this year, the Cubs can't win logic is based entirely on the past and has no basis in the present day. Holders of both 'straight line logic' and 'variable logic' will swear they are 1000% right and will cite facts to back up totally opposite conclusions. And the kicker is that if you mix variable logic and straight line logic, you realize it isn't possible to accurately rank teams and pick games.

Let's stay away from Andrean-Highland, North Newton-Whiting, Wheeler-River Forest and South Central-Lake Station. There are no totally opposite conclusions possible there and the goal here is not to make obvious picks. Wirt-Gavit is another 'contest' that falls somewhat short of competitive prediction status.

Clark (3-2) at Kankakee Valley (2-3)

DeMOTTE - Here's a game that's very hard to be sure about. Kankakee Valley has been shut out three weeks in a row but they teams that smoked them are Griffith (3-2), Lowell (4-1) and Hobart (4-1), who have all spent time in the Top-10 this year. Clark has allowed just 40 points all year but they have not met any Top-10 squads. I'm not sure who's good here. I'm going to say Clark has the offense to survive the trip here.

Clark 28, Kankakee Valley 26

Bishop Noll (1-4) at Calumet (4-1)

GARY - Noll has lost to high fliers Andrean (3-2) and Whiting (4-1) but they are 1-4 and they have given up almost 30 points a game. Calumet has defeated four very bad teams and they were routed by five TDs by Clark (3-2). There's an indication that Bishop Noll is just outgunned in some spots. Here is where someone has to get real and its Calumet in a high-scoring contest.

Calumet 36, Bishop Noll 32

North Judson (2-3) at (Indianapolis) Brebeuf (4-1)

INDIANAPOLIS - Brebeuf lost 14-12 to Culver Academy last week, but they do have wins over Ritter (4-1), Scecina (3-2) and Indian Creek (3-2). North Judson has also lost to Culver, but last week's 41-25 loss to Pioneer (4-1) had to be somewhat of a lift for a team that had been struggling to score. Judson beat Brebeuf 14-3 last year, but they can't do it again.

Brebeuf 28, North Judson 16

Chesterton (4-1) at Portage (2-3)

PORTAGE - Portage has to either find offense they have not come up with all year (they've scored just 64 points) or they have to stop Chesterton's 25 points a game offense. That's like the frying pan and the fire. Here's some of that 'straight line logic'. No one has held Chesterton under 20 points. Only one team, Highland (0-5) has allowed more than 14 points to Portage.

Chesterton 24, Portage 14

Michigan City (2-3) at Lake Central (4-1)

ST. JOHN - Lake Central was fortunate to come back from a 14-point second half deficit last week, but Michigan City is 0-3 in the DAC. LC is still looking for a game where they play well all night and this isn't it. Michigan City goes from the speed of Merrillville's defense to the power of Lake Central's defense. The LC offense is a little erratic, but MC can't move the ball here.

Lake Central 27, Michigan City 12

LaPorte (2-3) at Merrillville (4-1)

MERRILLVILLE - This will be closer than expected. A lot of LaPorte players are playing here for the first time, but LaPorte can run the ball and shorten this game. If LaPorte soph QB Dustin DeMuth has to throw here, this game gets out of hand. Merrillville has so many rivals and LaPorte isn't really one of them. The Pirates have to avoid taking this game lightly because LaPorte is just seven points away from being 4-1.

Merrillville 21, LaPorte 7

Valparaiso (3-2) at Crown Point (4-1)

CROWN POINT - This should be an offensive showcase. Valpo QB Alex Sarkisian gets to be the first to really test CP's all-junior secondary. And CP's Russell Chick gets to run against the Vikings' ineffective run defense. This just can't be a low-scoring game.

Crown Point 45, Valparaiso 28

Munster (3-2) at Griffith (3-2)

GRIFFITH - Munster traditionally defenses Griffith well, but that's a lot to ask here. The Panthers are averaging 200 rushing yards a game and Munster didn't handle Morton's offense well last week. The Mustangs have to be very aggressive passing the football because that's where Griffith may be vulnerable.

Griffith 35, Munster 21

Morton (3-2) at Hammond (5-0)

HAMMOND - Morton is better than Hammond, but they have not played a very strong offensive game all season long. The Governors have actually allowed more points (85) than they have scored (83). Hammond has averaged almost 45 points a game, whipping up on five losing teams. This is a very big game for them, but you need experience in big games to win big games. Morton has it. Hammond doesn't.

Morton 28, Hammond 7

Lowell (4-1) at Hobart (4-1)

HOBART - These games are traditionally conservative. No reason this one should be any different. Another factor to consider here with the final score. Both defenses in this game have shut out three opponents so far. Hobart QB Matt Barras has not thrown a pass interception all season. Lowell makes too many turnovers. Hobart makes too few.

Hobart 17, Lowell 10