Week 6 Picks:  2008 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 24, 2008

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK 5, 2008 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 5; Right - 5 = 50.0%
The Pick	The Result
River Forest 16, North Newton 8	WRONG... North Newton  21-19
Bishop Noll 35, Whiting 21	WRONG... Whiting 36-33 (OT)
Morton 30, Munster 21	WRONG... Munster 35-28
Griffith 42, Kankakee Valley 7	Griffith 41-14
East Chicago 44, Clark 33	East Chicago 36-28
Hobart 28, Andrean 14	Hobart 29-3
Lake Central 28, LaPorte 27	WRONG... LaPorte 21-0
MERRILLVILLE 26, Michigan City 14	MERRILLVILLE 17-14
CROWN POINT 17, Portage 7	CROWN POINT 21-6
Valparaiso 31, Chesterton 14	WRONG... Chesterton 12-10

 

WEEK-FIVE (5) RECAP from Friday, September 19, 2008:  I'm lower than the stock market.  I lost the Noll game in overtime.  I lost a 14-point lead in the Morton game. And how come I didn't know that the ONLY team North Newton has beaten in the last three years IS River Forest?  I feel like IU losing to Ball State.  The best pick of the week?  Clearly the Crown Point double digit victory over undefeated Portage.  The worst picks:  Pretty much all the others.

 

'Mr. Picker's Recent Picking Record

2008 (Week 5)  5 of 10   = 50.0%
2008 (Week 4)  7 of 10   = 70.0%
2008 (Week 3)  7 of 12   = 58.3%
2008 (Week 2)  6 of 10   = 60.0%
2008 (Week 1)  9 of 12   =  75.0%
2008 Year to Date:  34 of 54 = 62.9%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

VALPARAISO (09-26-2008) - Things are dominated by the match up of undefeated Hobart and undefeated Lowell.  But I don't know if this is a tough week.  Even if you cant, in good conscience, pick Wheeler (5-0) vs. River Forest (1-4); Whiting (4-1) vs. North Newton (1-4) or the blowout that is Highland (0-5) at Andrean (2-3), which you can't.  The Bowman Academy game at Elkhart Memorial will not go well. And Gavit (1-4)vs. Wirt(0-5)?  You just can't pick Gary games this year.  It's not fair.  But this is not as tough a week as it may first appear.  Here's a chance to make up some ground.

Calumet (4-1) at Bishop Noll (3-2) 

HAMMOND (9-26-2008) Calumet should be 5-0.  They are better than the Clark team that beat them 16-15 on Aug. 29.  But Bishop Noll gave away the 36-33 game to Whiting and they wouldn't lose to South Central again.  Calumet is fairly one dimensional and I can't figure out how Noll lost last week.

Bishop Noll 28, Calumet 21


Kankakee Valley (0-5) at Clark (2-3) 

HAMMOND (9-26-2008) Kankakee Valley is probably not going to go 0-9 so where is it the win comes?  Clark has been competitive in every game, but they haven't been playing Griffith, Hobart and Lowell.  In the Sagarin ratings, KV is a 10-point favorite.  I like the Kougars even with the long drive to north Hammond.

Kankakee Valley 28, Clark 14


West Lafayette (5-0) at Rensselaer (3-2) 

RENSSSELAER (9-26-2008) A tough one.  WL is unbeaten, but the Bombers have a big offensive line and WL has to drive an hour.  But West Lafayette is powered by all-state QB Matt Lancaster (6-3, 188), who was knocked out for the season last year when WL was 8-0.  In good weather, this is too big a step up even for a Rensselaer team that is the 2A real Sectional 25 favorite.

West Lafayette 41, Rensselaer 21


East Chicago (3-2) at (SB) Washington (2-3)

SOUTH BEND (9-26-2008) Okay now, this is the team that went 0-10 last year and switched to a spread offense this season.  I've been disappointed that East Chicago doesn't just score at will on some of the teams they play.  This is a basketball-on-grass game and Washington is having a return-to-glory year.

(SB) Washington 44, East Chicago 28


Hammond (4-1) at Morton (2-3)

HAMMOND (9-26-2008) Morton simply has been playing too tough a schedule for Hammond to hang with them.  This is a game where the Wildcats need to play well, but they can't expect to win this game considering the schedule these two teams have played to this point.  Hammond has more of a chance to upset Lowell next week than they do beating Morton after playing three Gary schools.

Morton 42, Hammond 21


Lake Central (3-2) at Michigan City (2-3)

MICHIGAN CITY (9-26-2008) Here's the first upset of the week.  Lake Central has had problems running the ball and they don't have a strong passing attack.  I am not sure when star tackle Mike Kalinich comes back and he is needed.  Michigan City must be hungry for a win after Merrillville stole one from them last week and that's another team that has not played up to expectations.

Michigan City 28, Lake Central 17


Portage (4-1) at Chesterton (4-1)

CHESTERTON (9-26-2008) I think what you saw from Portage last week was somewhat of a mirage with Ryan Cherry out, but he's set to return this week.  I can't underestimate how good Chesterton feels after last week's 12-10 upset of Valpo.  Two option-based teams here.  It will be very close.

Chesterton 22, Portage 20 


Griffith (2-3) at Munster (4-1)

MUNSTER  (9-26-2008) Eventually Griffith is going to make an example out of someone.  There are too many good players here, especially on defense, to be under .500.  Munster has not defeated a team with a winning record.  This won't be that close a game.

Griffith 35, Munster 17


Merrillville (2-3) at LaPorte (2-3)

LaPORTE (9-26-2008) A very interesting match-up because the Pirates never seem to play well in LaPorte County.  The Slicers are coming off a 21-0 victory over Lake Central and Merrillville has not played one solid offensive and defensive game all year.  This could easily be the best game of the week.

Merrillville 29, LaPorte 28


CROWN POINT (2-3) at Valparaiso (4-1)

VALPARAISO (9-26-2008) The worst thing that happened to CP was Valpo's 12-10 loss at home last week.  Practice may have taken on a very serious tone at VHS this week.  Crown Pont has scored 43 point and allowed 43 points.  Beyond mid season, that's a bizarre set of numbers.  The Bulldogs don't have the running game to win on the road here.

Valparaiso 24, CROWN POINT 13


Hobart (5-0) at LOWELL (5-0)

LOWELL (9-26-2008) Hobart's won with defense.  They've outscored the opposition 46-0 in the first quarter.  Lowell has outscored opponents 86-7 in the second quarter and both teams have returning starting QBs who are seeing this for for the second time.  Hobart's Matt Barras has hit five TD passes in his last three games and I don't know how they protect the passer against the Devils.  Hobart can't score a TD here and Lowell eventually will scrape up enough rushing yards to win.

LOWELL 20, Hobart 6

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Revised: September 23, 2008 .