Week 6 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

September 22, 2009

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK Five  (5), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 2; Right - 11 = 84.6%;  Season: 52-17, 75.3%
The Pick	The Result
Gavit 35, Roosevelt 12	Gavit 35-28
East Chicago 32, Clark 20	Wrong... Clark 49-26
Gary West Side 33, Hammond 28	Wrong... Hammond 26-19
North Newton 20, River Forest 12	North Newton 30-0
Bishop Noll 35, Whiting 28	Noll 21-14
Rensselaer 26, Twin Lakes 12	Rensselaer 22-20
ANDREAN 28, Hobart 14	ANDREAN 48-25
Griffith 35, Kankakee Valley 7	Griffith 35-14
Morton 34, Munster 31	Morton 14-13
LaPorte 40, Lake Central 21	LaPorte 49-13
Valparaiso 16, Chesterton 14	Valparaiso 35-23
Portage 31, CROWN POINT 27	Portage 43-22
MERRILLVILLE 34, Michigan City 21	MERRILLVILLE 25-13

WEEK (5) FIVE ANALYSIS:  I clearly did not know how far East Chicago has fallen.  They looked like Purdue did against Northern Illinois.  EC has some injury problems and it's going to be tough for them to beat people right now.  The West Side-over-Hammond pick was, admittedly, an upset shot in the dark.  This is the Hammond team that is the only school to lose to Highland, right?  I'd make that choice again.

 

I want to reintroduce you to the tried and true 'Bounce Back Theory'.

 

It goes like this:  When a team loses to an opponent they perhaps should not have lost to or when they are embarrassed by a large margin.  If they are home the next week or playing against a team of equal talent, they will bounce back and win.

 

LaPorte got beat up on the road in week four.  Week five, they romp over Lake Central.  Portage was embarrassed by Merrillville on the road.  Next week, they bounce back and win by 21 at home.  Valparaiso lost to Michigan City in a game they should have won.  Next week.  They came back and rejected Chesterton by 12.  Want to see the theory in action?  Watch Chesterton this week.

 

The best pick last week?  Probably Griffith over KV by almost the exact score.  Merrillville over MC by 13 (they won by 12).  Morton over Munster was a good pick and Noll over Whiting by seven was a direct hit.

 

As long as the weather stays good, we're going to see these high scores.  Look at college football.  Nobody plays defense anymore and almost everything is pass interference these days.  Speaking of good weather, congratulations to the Gary schools for playing games Saturday afternoon.  They have realized that Saturday afternoon allows all parents to come and see the game.  Kids can walk to the game safely if they wish to.  And, when you don't have to turn on the lights, you save about $500 right there.  Any school that has attendance problems and wants to eliminate the light bill should play on Saturday.  It's that simple.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

For week six, we're going to have to leave out five obvious games.  Chicago Charter can't beat anybody, much less Gary West Side (3-2). LaLumiere is not competitive, so Gavit gets an easy win there.  Wheeler is 50 points better than River Forest and North Newton has no chance driving two hours to Whiting.  I'm leaving out East Chicago (1-4) and Central Noble (1-4), which is a Saturday afternoon (3:00 p.m.) game because, believe it or not, this is a game EC can't lose.  Also, I can't, in good conscience, pretend to 'select' the game between Lowell (5-0) and Hobart (1-4).  And neither can you.  That leaves us 12 competitive games to end the month with.
  

WEEK SIX

Bowman Academy (4-1) at Clark (4-1)

HAMMOND (9-25-2009)  This will be a rude awakening for Bowman.  In the last three weeks, the Eagles have played three teams that are so bad, you wonder if they are using real live boys or just cardboard cutouts on defense.  Bowman played a very difficult schedule last year and went 0-9.  They scheduled three teams they could beat with the cheerleaders this year and that's why the record is good.  Clark is not a great team, but they will have no trouble with Bowman.

Clark 57, Bowman Academy 28


Lew Wallace (1-3) at Gary Roosevelt (0-5)

GARY (9-25-2009)  Lew Wallace has only a win over LaLumiere, which is not a competitive team.  Roosevelt gave Gavit a battle, losing 35-28 last Saturday.  Both teams will be ready because this is a city game they both feel they can win.  I think Roosevelt is the Gary school which has taken the longest time to get together after a bad summer.  Kinda like the Minnesota Twins.  Even with a short week, Roosevelt gets their first win here in a Saturday afternoon (2:00 p.m.) special.

Roosevelt 26, Lew Wallace 22


North Judson (2-3) at Kankakee Valley (1-4)

WHEATFIELD (9-25-2009)  This is a tough call.  Judson has lost three in a row and they were embarrassed last week 49-6 by undefeated Pioneer (5-0).  But KV is at home and look at KV's losses:  Lowell (5-0), Wheeler (5-0), Rensselaer (4-1) and Griffith (2-3), on Griffith's 75th anniversary night.  The Kougars can run the ball and they still think they're an OK team.  The Jays may have injury problems.  KV hasn't played Judson in seven years and they haven't defeated them since 1998.  But it's going to happen Friday.

KV 21, North Judson 13


South Central (0-5) at Lake Station (0-5)

LAKE STATION (9-25-2009)  The IHSAA has ruled that neither team can go home until someone wins this game.  South Central allows 32 points a game, but there's a couple of games this year they should have won.  Lake Station has scored only four TDs all season.  The Eagles are at home and this is realistically their last chance to win during the regular season.  I can't see it.  South Central should not be winless.

South Central 26, Lake Station 8


Bishop Noll (3-2) at Calumet (4-1)

GARY (9-25-2009)  Calumet should be 5-0 and Noll would be if they played Calumet's schedule.  Did you know that Calumet has shut out the last three teams they've played?  I know they were North Newton (1-4), Lake Station (0-5) and River Forest (1-4), but I cannot find a time in their ENTIRE HISTORY when Calumet shut out three teams in a row.  Clearly, Noll has played Munster (4-1) and Andrean (3-2), but I think this is a big game for Calumet at home and, if there's an upset this week, here it is.

Calumet 20, Noll 18


Rensselaer (4-1) at West Lafayette (5-0)

WEST LAFAYETTE (9-25-2009)  The power-running Bombers take a walk on the wild side here.  Rensselaer barely won over Twin Lakes last week even though they gave up 250 yards rushing.  'West Side' averages 41 points a game with a high-powered passing attack and no one has held them under 35.  Unless it rains, Rensselaer gets smoked here.

West Lafayette 42, Rensselaer 14


Morton (4-1) at Hammond (4-1)
 

HAMMOND (9-25-2009) Arch rivals battle it out in Hammond, but I think there's a difference in schedule here.  Morton beat Highland 41-3 while Highland is the only team to defeat Hammond.  There will be more wild talking about this game in Hammond this week than there will be on the Tyra Banks show on 'sweeps week'.  But Hammond can't beat Morton this year and it won't be close.

Morton 35, Hammond 13


Munster (4-1) at Griffith (2-3)

GRIFFITH (9-25-2009)  Munster may have had the better team three weeks ago, but times have changed.  The Panthers have won two of their last three and the loss was to Lowell (5-0).  Munster usually defends the option well, but Griffith is running the ball very well now and some missing players have returned.  You have to look at the competition Munster has played and how they've fared.  After the last two weeks, it's hard to go against Griffith.

Griffith 28, Munster 14


Michigan City (4-1) at Lake Central (1-4)
 

ST. JOHN (9-25-2009)  Upset warning here.  This is a trap.  MC was all jacked up to play Merrillville last week.  This week they travel an hour to play at Lake Central in front of half empty stands.  I don't know if Michigan City has the experience to be a heavy favorite on the road.  They turn the ball over a lot.  LC was embarrassed last week and I can't believe they won't win another game this year.  Here's your 'bounce back' theory.

Lake Central 21, Michigan City 20


Chesterton (3-2) at Portage (3-2)

PORTAGE (9-25-2009)  Portage cannot stop the run and all Chesterton does is run.  But the Indian's duo of Jake Dixon and Zach Huston have rolled up 1200 yards on the ground.  Here's where you roll back the clock and ask: "Which team did you think was better at the start of the year?"  After a lot of points are scored both ways in five weeks, that's still Portage.

Portage 45, Chesterton 35


Valparaiso (2-3) at CROWN POINT (2-3)

CROWN POINT (9-25-2009)  The toughest game of the week because we don't know who's playing quarterback for Valpo.  I don't think they'll beat CP with 'the 'Wildcat'.  CP's defensive front is pretty good, but Valpo has a lot of speed on offense.  I think Livovich will play and that will put CP at a disadvantage.  When the season began, Valpo had the best set of skill players in the DAC.

Valparaiso 28, CROWN POINT 17


LaPorte (4-1) at MERRILLVILLE (4-1)

MERRILLVILLE (9-25-2009)  LaPorte is loaded offensively with halfback Nick Latchford and QB Dustin DeMuth.  But they most certainly do not play well away from home.  In 2007, a bad LaPorte team was 3-1 at home and 0-6 on the road.  In 2006, a good LaPorte team was 6-1 at home and 4-3 on the road.  This year, they are 3-0 at home and 1-1 on the road.  All high school teams are not like that.  Most high school teams are largely the same home and away.  LaPorte is not a strong run-defense team and Merrillville runs the option well.

MERRILLVILLE 31, LaPorte 17

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Revised: September 22, 2009 .