Week 7 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 29, 2004

WEEK SIX (6) ANALYSIS:

Hobart played without turnovers and upset a superior team in Andrean. Portage led 19-14 in the fourth quarter and, in some respects, gave it away against Chesterton. Lake Station won on extra points against Calumet and Lake Central is in a lot worse shape than I thought.

In retrospect, Morton over Munster was a pick made on sentiment and not reality. Morton hasn't given an indication in 2 years that they are competitive in the LAC Black Division.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

(Week Five) 10 of 12, 83.3%

(Week Six) 7 of 12, 58.3 %

2004 Season to date, 55 of 75, 73.3%

WEEK SEVEN (7): Oct. 1, 2004

Wheeler (2-4) 21, Lake Station (2-4) 7

Wheeler had no answer for the passing attacks of Whiting and Gavit the last 2 weeks in losses 55-14 and 54-20. Lake Station cannot mount that type of attack. Wheeler has 1,000 yards rushing and they have plenty to control this game. The Eagles broke a 16-game league losing streak with a 14-13 win over Calumet last week. That moment should help their program as it leaves the impression that they are on the rise. If Lake Station finishes the season with 2 wins, this year has been an upgrade.  Baby steps.

East Chicago (4-2) 28, (South Bend) St. Joseph's (3-3) 27

A rare test for East Chicago since the first two weeks of the season. The Cardinals must be able to buckle down defensively on a St. Joseph's team that was competitive early with Penn last week. St. Joe is an option team that EC will have to defense effectively or they won't get the ball much. St. Joe gained 250 yards on Penn but had five turnovers, losing 49-14. There could be an ambush waiting here for EC, which is averaging 40 points a game but may not be that solid.

Kankakee Valley (3-3) 30, Calumet (2-4) 16

Calumet stumbled when nearing a three-game winning streak and the 14-13 loss to Lake Station last week may be discouraging. Calumet has given up seven TD passes in six games but KV stays on the ground. The Kougars rushed for 400 yards last week against Clark. At the start of the year, this game was considered a mismatch and KV is beginning to play as they were predicted to.

Whiting (6-0) 26, Gavit (3-3) 12

There is a temptation to pick a score like 55-44 here with Whiting's Matt Kobli (76-110, 1,292 yards) and Gavit's Jake Galik (57-116, 969 yards) both prolific passers. But in questionable weather situations (the temperature is slated to drop considerably Friday), I think Whiting will go to their rushing attack, which Gavit will be hard-pressed to stop.

Whiting is going to start feeling the pressure of being such a highly-touted team, the curse of playing in 'the region'. Remember, Whiting has not beaten a winning team as of yet.

Andrean (5-1) 42, Highland (3-3) 14

There must be problems with the 59ers defensive front which has allowed 500 yards total against Lowell and Hobart in the last two weeks. The 59ers are not used to being handled defensively as they were last week in Hobart's 21-7 win. But the end of the 59ers' regular season and LAC winning streaks will be a positive for Andrean, not a negative. The 59ers needed a loss. Highland is very fortunate to be 3-3 and the Trojans, with only 700 rushing yards in six games, do not have the rushing attack to hurt Andrean, This is the wrong week to be playing Andrean, it's that simple.

(Indianapolis) Cathedral (2-4) 50, Gary West Side (5-1) 6

This is a mismatch, despite the records. Cathedral defeated top-ranked Roncalli 20-17 last week and Roncalli (5-1) is the 2-time defending Class 4A champion. Another of Cathedral's losses is to Chatard, the three-time defending 3A champion. The Cougars got bombed 50-8 last week at Woodstock, Ill. and they have no business playing Cathedral. My wish for the Cougars in this game is that none of them gets hurt.

Portage (4-2) 33, Michigan City (3-3) 14

Portage let one get away last week. They outgained and outplayed Chesterton only to lose on a three-TD fourth quarter rally 35-19. Portage, though 1-game behind the leaders, is very much in the DAC race with co-leaders Valpo and Merrillville going head to head Friday. Portage still has Valparaiso to play. Antoine Brown (5-9, 185) ran past the 1,000-yard mark last week and he is the focus for a Michigan City team which dominated Lake Central 34-0 last week. The Wolves are at a fork in the road. They have not defeated anyone but LC in DAC play in the last three years. MC must use the running of Ryan Fics (22 carries, 188 yards last week) to keep the ball away from Brown, 1,000-yard QB Jake Huston and ace receiver Milt Rivera. Chill the Wolves enthusiasm just yet. MC has not defeated any team with more than one victory this season.

Lafayette Central Catholic (3-3) 63, River Forest (2-4) 42

This is the fun game of the week. RF's Matt Bigott has thrown for 1,400 yards but he pales in comparison to Catholic star Thomas Haan, who is just under 2,000 yards passing. He was 30-for-59 for 440 yards against Class 1A No. 2 Pioneer. One of Lafayette Catholic's losses was 34-28 in OT to Benton Central. Haan was 24-of-45 for 343 yards in that game. Unless it rains (and that is a possibility) numbers will go up on the board. Unlike the Whiting-Gavit game, where Whiting can run the ball, neither side here has any option but to throw. That's what they do.

Hobart (5-1) 21, Morton (2-4) 7

Hobart goes from being the contender to being the front runner in opponents' eyes this week, while Morton is stuck in a four-game losing streak. The big physical line of the Brickies is too much for a Morton defense, which has allowed 1,500 yards rushing in six games and 1,250 yards rushing in the last three weeks against Lowell, Griffith and Munster. The reason this is not a mismatch is that Morton has quick-strike passing ability and Hobart has completed only 18 passes all season. But if it gets rainy and cold Friday, this game could get ugly. It may take Morton a generation to be competitive in the LAC. That's how long it has taken CP (now in their 12^th DAC season) to be any kind of a player in the DAC.  For Hobart, moving down where strength of leagues is concerned, they will be contenders for the next 2 or 3 years.

Crown Point (2-4) 20, LaPorte (3-3) 17

Both teams have injury problems. CP is missing three starters defensively along with halfback Donny Keiser. LaPorte has gone most of the season without QB Lance Juergensen. Everybody has passed the ball on LaPorte and that's where CP QB Matt Jansen (76-144, 1,070 yards, 7 TDs, 6 INTs) excels. LaPorte is at home and they were competitive against Merrillville, losing just 17-7. Rain changes the outcome of this one because LaPorte is the better running team and LaPorte all-stater Nick Ford has 10 field goals in the last 16 games.

Lowell (4-2) 28, Munster (3-3) 7

Munster stopped a three-game losing streak when they got five interceptions and beat Morton 33-21. But Munster is injury riddled without TB-LB Prince Kwateng and WR-DB Bart Banach and QB Jake Ernd did not complete a pass last week. I don't see Lowell and 1,100-yard TB Toby Goetz just running over the Mustang front but Munster has to score and that will be tough here without a passing attack.

Valparaiso (4-2) 17, Merrillville (5-1) 14

The game of the week matching the DAC's top overall team in Valpo against the league's best defense in Merrillville. Valpo loses linebacker and leading tackler Bo Gilliland for the season with a torn ACL, but they played without him in the 35-14 win over CP last week. Merrillville's 1,000-yard rusher James Aldridge must be able to gain against the VHS front which has held six consecutive rushing attacks to less than 160 yards. The key to this game is Pirate QB Evan Parker, who is inconsistent. He doesn't need to throw for 200 yards. Parker just needs to direct a turnover-free attack. Valpo has a wonderfully balanced attack with almost 1,000 rushing yards and a little over 1,100 passing yards. But they face a defense that has allowed just over nine points a game (58 points). The Pirates have allowed only seven points in the third quarter all season. Watch Valpo's motion and misdirection and the big Valpo offensive front as it tries to slow down the Pirate's front four, led by Purdue-recruit Michael Neal, which is one of the best in the state.

OUT OF TOWN...

Rensselaer (6-0) 42, West Lafayette (3-3) 27

A wide open shootout in Rensselaer last week as the Bombers got 235 yards rushing on 19 carries from halfback Andrew Malone (6-0, 180). Rensselaer QB Jacob Kiger (6-1, 180), who had 94 carries for 709 yards (and 7 TDs in 2 weeks) coming in was held under 100 yards. But Malone scored three TDs in the first quarter to boost his side to a 20-14 lead. Malone gained 141 yards on six carries in the first period.

The Bombers have scored 207 points (34.5 per game) and have not been held below 20 in a any game. They beat North Judson 20-17 in OT and they'll see North Judson (5-1) again in the sectional playoffs. Kiger (38 of 88, 828 yards), only a junior, has scored 120 points in six weeks. The sign of trouble? The Bombers have allowed 124 points (20.6) in six games despite the fact that they have primarily a rushing offense.

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Revised: October 06, 2004 .