Week 7 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

September 28, 2005

WEEK-6 ANALYSIS:  The Calumet-Lake Station game was actually very encouraging to both sides because both sides reached offensive heights they did not feel they could reach. When you score repeatedly in a close game (none of the TDs came on defense), it makes the whole team feel better. KV is playing the way some have thought they could for the last couple of years. Lake Central continues to find out how difficult it is in the Duneland Athletic Conference when you face seven league games in seven weeks. South Central has injury problems which explains that margin of victory. Crown Point and LaPorte were somewhat lucky to win again. North Judson and Hobart continue to struggle on offense as the regular season winds down. Portage out-gained Chesterton approximately 350-250 and still lost. Munster and Clark continue to search for a winning combination while Whiting and Morton continue to put points on the board. At the end of the day, lots of points cures all evils.

WEEK 6 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 61 of 87, 70.1%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 7 (SEVEN) PREDICTIONS 9-30-2005

Kankakee Valley (4-2) 52, Calumet (2-4) 21 

GARY – Calumet threw the ball 24 times and gave up 500 yards rushing last week so this game will not be close. KV must be careful not to look ahead. Cold weather moves in this week, which favors running teams. KV has scored 174 points in the last four weeks, but that's against the weak LAC Blue Division. So it's hard to tell if the Kougars are good or their LAC Blue league rivals are that bad. 

Whiting (6-0) 31, Gavit (1-5) 14 

HAMMOND – I can't explain why Gavit continues to lose. They will flirt with a massive upset here as Victor Ayala gives the Oilers trouble on the ground. Gavit has 900 yards rushing in the last four games but they also have 15 turnovers. Whiting has far too much offense for the Gladiators, who cannot avoid fumbles. Again, at the end of the day, it's all about scoring a lot of points and nobody has to tell Whiting how to do that. The only doubt here is that Whiting is a summertime team that throws the ball a lot. It gets cold this Friday and that's when real boys run the ball. 

New Prairie (3-3) 28, John Glenn (5-1) 21 

WALKERTON - I see New Prairie as having lost three games by 10 points or less and this is a semistate team from 2004. Glenn smoked out South Central last week, but SC had injury trouble. New Prairie is hungry for a big win and their option attack is difficult to defend. On a cold night, the Cougars surprise a top-10 team. 

Clark (2-4) 16, Bishop Noll (3-3) 13 

HAMMOND – Clark, which lost by 4 TDs last week, could not stop the running attack of KV last week, but they may rebound here against a Noll team that is just a couple of plays away from being 0-6. The Warriors, which lost by 5 TDs last week, have not found a consistent offense yet and turnovers are a problem here, too. These LAC Blue games almost defy analysis because of the low level of play. 

Andrean (6-0) 30, Highland (3-3) 13 

HIGHLAND - Without QB-FS Andrew Helmer (concussion), Highland has no chance here. Andrean gas been very solid defensively all season and they can be conservative, run the ball and win here. Unfortunately, Highland's depleted status contributes to Andrean's somewhat soft schedule heading into the Griffith game on Oct. 7th.  Highland is certainly considering going the rest of the way without Helmer, as a lingering concussion is not a predictable injury. 

Chesterton (1-5) 42, Lake Central (2-4) 28 

ST. JOHN - Chesterton has 1,500 yards passing and they finally broke through for a come-from-behind win last week against an injury depleted Portage squad. They have to stay on the attack against LC, which hasn't stopped anybody in four weeks. LC needs to ash-can their prolific pass attack for a week to concentrate on running the ball against Chesterton's shaky run defense. No question this will be a high scoring game, but Chesterton has played a tougher schedule. 

Hobart (4-2) 28, Morton (4-2) 14 

HAMMOND - Hobart got stuffed on the ground in a 20-10 loss to Andrean last Friday, so they've been working on the run all week. Morton has defeated Lowell and Munster but both of those teams are 2-4. The Governors spread the field and hope to score early so they force the other teams to the air. The Brickies can't fall for the old okey-doke here. If Hobart QB Josh Miracle throws 20 times, the Brickies will lose. Morton has allowed 126 points in four league games. If the Brickies just pound the ball on the ground, eventually Hobart takes over for a win. Brickie weather moves in this week. Low 50s or upper 40s. 

Lafayette Catholic (4-2) 40, South Central (3-3) 8 

UNION MILLS - This is a mismatch. Lafayette Catholic is very strong and has played a tougher schedule than South Central, which has injury problems. Catholic has lost to Pioneer (6-0) and Illinois power St. Joseph's-Ogden (5-0). No contest here, but a good schedule for SC, which, while they will be bombed on this night, won't see this caliber team in the sectional. 

Lowell (2-4) 35, Munster (2-4) 7 

MUNSTER – The Mustangs have scored just 46 points in four league games and they face one of the LAC's top defenses here. That alone would indicate the ponies will go home hungry here. Munster has allowed 47 to Morton and 63 to Griffith. Lowell can't score like that, but the Devils may be at full strength for the first time since August. Lowell has lost to Griffith (6-0), Andrean (6-0) and Crown Point (6—0) so their record is deceiving. Munster has to play this game with an eye on a rematch next month in sectional play. They must find out if they can run on Lowell which only Griffith was able to do. 

Merrillville (4-2) 21, Valparaiso (3-3) 10 

MERRILLVILLE – Both teams are looking towards a potential state tournament rematch but motivation will be a question here with both team playing a meaningless game on a cold night. The Vikings get to stare down Merrillville which lost in double-overtime last week and may have something to prove. Valpo must find out if they are physical enough to run the ball on the Pirate defense, which has stopped everybody on the ground. Valpo has had a funny year. They could have beaten Penn and the should have beaten LaPorte and Crown Point on the road. But the prospect of facing an angry Pirate team coming off a loss must seem about as funny to Valparaiso as six lame episodes of 'My name is Earl'. 

Portage (2-4) 38, Michigan City (4-2) 20 

PORTAGE - Michigan City has done very well against sub-.500 teams but Portage is a bit of a different animal. The big line of the Wolves has to overpower the quicker, smaller Portage defenders. If Portage gets RB Justin Smith back that will help but it will be how well MC can rush QB Erik Rhein and cover wide receiver Shane Dixon that matters. This is a transition year in the DAC with LaPorte and CP at the top and Valpo, Portage and Merrillville all with two or three league losses. Portage has to be lacking confidence and we have 'running back' weather moving in. If MC scores first, they could pull off what would still be a major upset. Since the consolidation of old MC schools Elston and Rogers, Michigan City has never beaten Portage. 

Crown Point (6-0) 37, LaPorte (6-0) 31 

CROWN POINT – A matchup of two squads that still have a lot to prove. When the weakest part of both teams is the offensive line, you don't really know what you have. CP has averaged just 20 points a game and a lot of those are field goals (11) by kicker Donny Keiser. LaPorte has been about as successful defending the run as those levees down in New Orleans. The Slicers have to find some stops on defense where they have allowed 1100 rushing yards in six games. CP HB Jon Sertich set a single game school rushing record (273 yards) against LaPorte last season. LaPorte appears to have big advantages on the perimeter with a six inch height advantage over CP's defensive backs and tailback Airrence Shark is good for 100 yards when he's not facing Merrillville. Get a ticket. Nobody stops anybody here. CP's Donny Keiser goes for a state record in field goals (the single season mark is 13).All-NW Indiana QB Matt Jansen (133-242, 1,876, 15 TDs, 10 INTs) returns after missing six weeks for CP. But LaPorte is trying to go 7-0 for the first time since gas was 29 cents a gallon (1946) and choking was some thing you did in a bad horror movie, not on a baseball field. The difference? LaPorte can't control the clock in the late going and CP can. 

STATE GAME of the WEEK...

4A No. 10 Concord (5-1) at 4A No. 8 Plymouth (6-0) 

Northern Lakes Conference at Plymouth - 7 p.m. (CST) 

PLYMOUTH - When the Lake Athletic Conference breaks up after next year and seven schools form the Northwest Crossroads Conference (KV, Munster, Highland, Munster, Hobart, Andrean and Lowell), this is the league they wish it could become. A 4A state finalist, and Wawasee has come out of the Northern Lakes Conference in the past two seasons. Six of the NLC's eight teams are .500 or better and have scored more points than they've allowed. In Plymouth, Northwood and Goshen, you have three tradition rich schools and everyone here (except for Northridge this year) is competitive. Here is the first place showdown for 2005 after Concord rejected undefeated Jimtown 24-12 last week and Plymouth lucked out 31-30 in 2 overtimes over Wawasee. The Clinton administration continues in Plymouth as junior QB Chad Clinton is 6-0 as a starter in his second season after QB-ing the Rockies to an 8-4 season in 2004. Junior Alex Quintana is a 6-foot-4 tight end and free safety who is a state finalist in the 800-meter run. Clinton was 14-of-32 against Wawasee out of Plymouth's one-back, 4 wide receiver set. The Rockies defense, which has allowed 9- points in the last four weeks, is more finesse than hammers and they can give up plenty of yards. Plus Plymouth has won two games in double-overtime so their record is really 4-0-2. Concord gets QB Bob Cira back after a one game suspension. Cira was ejected in the Sept. 16 loss to Goshen. Cira passed for 14 TDs in 2004 and he has all his receivers returning including his brother James, who had a 44-yard punt return and a 50-yard pass reception in the win over Jimtown. JV QB Justin Gage tossed two TD passes last year but he'll be back on the bench Friday night. Concord has allowed 18 points a game and 81 points in three league games. They stopped Jimtown but Jimtown can't throw the ball. In dry weather, this will be a high-scoring game. Concord hasn't played any bad teams and they are 5-1. Plymouth started the year with a couple of weak 2A teams, which they shut out. Plymouth is a traditional football power while Concord is a basketball school. But Concord won last year. I like Concord on the road in a wild, mild upset. 

Concord 35, Plymouth 27

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Revised: September 28, 2005 .