Week 7 Football Picks

WEEK 6, 2007 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 4; Right - 6 = 60.0%
The Pick	The Result
Clark 28, Kankakee Valley 26	Correct... Clark 20-0
Calumet 36, Bishop Noll 32	Wrong... Bishop Noll 21-14
Brebeuf 28, North Judson 16	Correct... Brebeuf 35-17
Chesterton 24, Portage 14	Correct... Chesterton 14-7
Lake Central 27, Michigan City 12	Correct... Lake Central 44-28
Merrillville 21, LaPorte 7	Correct... Merrillville 42-28
Crown Point 45, Valparaiso 28	Wrong... Valparaiso 21-17
Griffith 35, Munster 21	Correct... Griffith 34-29
Morton 28, Hammond 7	Wrong... Hammond 14-13
Hobart 17, Lowell 10	Wrong... Lowell 10-7

Mid-season - WEEK 6 (Six) recap - 9-14-2007: Lowell's win over Hobart was certainly a game that could have gone either way. I'm still not sure who's the better team there. I thought Bishop Noll saved their season by beating Calumet. A real surprise. Valparaiso defeating Crown Point without stopping their running game was another shock, although CP had not faced a good passing team all season. The biggest surprise was sincerely Hammond's 14-13 win over Morton when Morton outgained them 2-1. I think Morton's clearly the better team, but that will be decided in the post-season.

The best picks: None. The score in the Munster-Griffith game was pretty accurate, but that's about it. Two 6-4 weeks in a row. I feel like Lovie Smith looking for something to change.

2007 (Week 1) 8 of 13   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 2) 8 of 11   = 72.7%
2007 (Week 3) 8 of 12   = 66.7%
2007 (Week 4) 10 of 11   = 90.9%
2007 (Week 5) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (Week 6) 6 of 10 = 60.0%
2007 (overall) 46 of 67   = 68.6%
2006 (final) OVERALL : 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

Northwest Indiana
WEEK 7 (SEVEN) PICKS, 09-28-2007

MERRILLVILLE (09-28-2007) - If you want a debate in the possible against the probable, you get it in the Duneland Athletic Conference (DAC), where five of the eight teams are tied for first place with three weeks left. Mathematically, as much fun as it might be to have five different champs, it is mathematically possible for one team to win an undisputed title. Lake Central, plays first place Chesterton, first place Valparaiso and first place Merrillville in the final three weeks. If they win all three, they take the title if Crown Point loses any of its final three games. CP can win its final three games, but they tie Merrillville if the Pirates also win the last three.

Can there be the first-ever four-way tie for first in the DAC? Yes. Ride with me here. Let's say Crown Point goes 2-1 and loses to Chesterton, finishing 6-3, 5-2. Chesterton beats LC and Crown Point and loses to Merrillville, finishing 7-2, 5-2. Valparaiso beats Merrillville and Portage and loses to LC, finishing 6-3, 5-2. Merrillville, then creates the four way tie by losing to Valparaiso, beating Lake Central and defeating Chesterton on the final day of the season, also ending up at 7-2, 5-2.

Can there be a 5-way tie. I don't think so, but frankly, I'm tired of thinking about it.

I guess this is like there being four games left in the baseball season and nobody's clinched a playoff spot yet. But, I don't know how good it is. This logjam may simply indicate that NW Indiana doesn't have a strong team to challenge the evil empire of 5A No. 2 Penn (6-0) at the regional level. You tell me. What team in NW Indiana could beat 5A No. 2 Penn (6-0) at the regional, 5A No. 3 Snider (6-0) at the semistate and 5A No. 1 Center Grove (6-0) in the final three weeks of the post-season? When you talk about the difference between Class 5A and any other bracket, there it is.

This is not a good week. Once again, we try not to pick lopsided games here so I'll let Morton-Gary West Side, South Central vs. North Newton, Andrean vs. Kankakee Valley, Wheeler vs. Lake Station, Griffith at winless Highland and Noll vs. winless River Forest rest in peace. If you have not won a game at this point, the only way I'm going to pick your game is if the team you are facing also has not won a game. Let's all note: Wirt (0-6) at River Forest (0-6) on Oct. 5.

There is a grand total of zero big games this week outside of the DAC with the possible exception of Hammond at Lowell, and that's not exactly a pick 'em game. It's harder to find good games this week than it is to find Democratic presidential candidates who will give you a straight answer...

Munster (2-4) at Hobart (4-2)

HOBART - Munster has lost three in a row, but they average 28 points a game and they've lost four games by a total of 19 points. Hobart's defense gave up only 10 points in last week's game but they allowed a nine-minute rushing drive for the game-winning field goal. Munster lost 34-29 to Griffith and 31-28 to Andrean. Hobart has some injuries and the Mustangs are under-rated, but the truth is, the wild horses have only stampeded Wirt (0-6) and Highland (0-6) so far this year.

Hobart 31, Munster 21

New Prairie (4-2) at John Glenn (4-2)

WALKERTON - You've got to take a look at this New Prairie quarterback Cody Williamson (5-11, 180) who has over 900 yards rushing and nine TDs, kicks all the extra points and has a 42-yard field goal for the Kougars. But rival Glenn is on a four-game winning streak and they've lost to New Prairie nine years in a row. But they don't face running attacks like the one New Prairie has.

New Prairie 34, John Glenn 20

Calumet (4-2) at Whiting (5-1)

WHITING - This game looks close if you compare scores, but on the field, I don't see it. Calumet can't run the ball well enough to keep the Whiting offense off the field and the Whiting offense averages 43 points a game. QB Will Dumezich has thrown for 13 TDs. In good weather, the Oilers can name their score.

Whiting 51, Calumet 20

Clark (4-2) at Gavit (2-4)

HAMMOND - I know it's a cross-town rivalry and everything, but Gavit just can't hang here. Clark shut out Kankakee Valley last week and truthfully, they lost 14-11 to East Chicago and 14-12 to Morton. The Pioneers are two bounces of the ball away from being 6-0 like Hammond. Gavit really doesn't have enough offensive weapons to stay in this game.

Clark 44, Gavit 16

Hammond (6-0) at Lowell (5-1)

LOWELL - If Lowell would throw the ball a lot, the Wildcats could steal a few and pull an upset. But there is absolutely no chance that Lowell won't run the ball 40-50 times and that's where Hammond is a little soft. Lowell has won six consecutive blowout victories over Hammond, and unless they fumble the ball three times, this game can be no different.

Lowell 38, Hammond 7

Portage (2-4) at Michigan City (2-4)

MICHIGAN CITY - The Indians' defense has been excellent, while the Michigan City offense has been very good. There's a tendency to believe that a team with a bad offense and good defense (Portage) is worse than a team with a bad defense and a good offense (MC). That's not true. Portage breaks their four-game losing streak here.

Portage 21, Michigan City 14

North Judson (2-4) at Winamac (2-4)

NORTH JUDSON - Judson gave up 400 yards rushing at Brebeuf last week, but Winamac has had problems moving the ball all year. The Jays have to wary of a major rival here, but this game shouldn't be close. North Judson has beaten Winamac seven times in a row, in part, because they play a tougher schedule.

North Judson 36, Winamac 12

LaPorte (2-4) at Crown Point (4-2)

CROWN POINT - LaPorte is having a lot of problems stopping the run and Crown Point's Russell Chick has gained 100 or more in every game this year. LaPorte allows over 250 per game on the ground and the Slicers pass receivers are battling injuries. A rematch of last year's regional except that LaPorte has graduated most of that team.

Crown Point 30, LaPorte 17

Lake Central (5-1) at Chesterton (5-1)

CHESTERTON - Both teams are in position to win the DAC with wins in their last three games, and of course, LC has never won the DAC. The Indians' defense is not what it needs to be to handle the Chesterton passing attack. LC has allowed 76 points in their last three games against teams and the Chesterton offensive line has bankrolled solid production all year. This may not be that close.

Chesterton 35, Lake Central 17

Merrillville (5-1) at Valparaiso (4-2)

VALPARAISO - The game of the week. Valpo has beaten Chesterton and Crown Point on the road in each of the last two weeks. Now, they return home to take on NW Indiana's top defense. The problem is that Valparaiso has not stopped the run all season and Merrillville's running game, led by QB Dolapo Macarthy and HB Roosevelt Williams, is improving. Valpo will be rallying at the end.

Merrillville 27, Valparaiso 23