Week 7 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

September 30, 2009

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK Six  (6), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 3; Right - 9 = 75.0%;  Season: 61-20, 75.3%
The Pick	The Result
Clark 57, Bowman Academy 28	Clark 56-6
Roosevelt 26, Lew Wallace 22	Roosevelt 30-22
KV 21, North Judson 13	KV 34-24
South Central 26, Lake Station 8	South Central 48-0
Calumet 20,  Noll 18	Wrong... Bishop Noll 6-0
West Lafayette 42, Rensselaer 14	West Lafayette 21-7
Morton 35, Hammond 13	Morton 35-14
Griffith 28, Munster 14	Griffith 7-6
Lake Central 21, Michigan City 20	Wrong... Michigan City 21-13
Portage 45, Chesterton 35	Wrong... Chesterton 31-28
Valparaiso 28, CROWN POINT 17	Valparaiso 56-21
MERRILLVILLE 31, LaPorte 17	MERRILLVILLE 31-0

 

WEEK (6) SIX ANALYSIS: The LC-Michigan City pick was a gamble based on the weather and travel.  Almost but not quite.  The Portage-Chesterton game could have gone either way.  Portage was at the Chesterton 4-yard-line when the game ended.  I'm surprised that Calumet could not score one point on Bishop Noll. I'd pick Calumet if they met again.  The best pick of the week: Obviously the Morton win over Hammond by almost the exact score.  The Roosevelt victory over Wallace was also a good choice.  Roosevelt was 0-5 going into that game.  That's like picking the Detroit Lions to win their first game in two years. The margin of victory in the Clark-Bowman game was also accurate.  Bowman should go back to playing nine tough games and not look for puppy-dog beginning schools that they can roll over.  If you believe the company line you are trying to sell your players, you don't want to travel or bring teams two hours if they aren't as good as you.  You should only look for neighbors or teams that are better than you.  You say you want to improve?  Then you cant sign up to play eleven sacks of potatoes.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

There are major games around the state in week seven like Plymouth (6-0) vs. Concord (6-0) and Mishawaka (6-0) vs. Penn (6-0).  Unfortunately no game approaches that magnitude in Northwest Indiana.  In the same vein that teams should not sign up to play bad teams to get an easy win, I certainly can't pick bad games just to fatten up the win percentage.  I can't in good conscience pick Bowman to lose at Churubusco, Chicago Charter to barely show up (they didn't show up last week) against Roosevelt, Lake Station to get shanghaied at Wheeler or River Forest to get creamed against Bishop Noll.  And you should be ashamed to pick Hammond high to get barbecued at Lowell, Highland to get a mud bath against Griffith and Lake Central to get horsewhipped at Chesterton.  Real pickers can't go there.  The difference between picking 70% correct and 80% correct is to not pick games where the favorite couldn't also win the same game with their junior varsity.  It's not a great week.  That leaves only 10 fairly competitive games to select.  With some good, cold football weather you look for the run-oriented teams to start their playoff push this Friday.  I'm confident I'm going to pick 80% of these games this Friday.  But then I was confident that Chicago's going to get the Olympics, too.
 

WEEK SEVEN

Morton 28, Gary West Side 6


Clark (5-1) at Gavit (2-4)

HAMMOND (10-2-2009) Gavit's won their last two and Clark has won their last three.  Both teams got easy wins last week over out-manned schools.  The weather may keep Clark from throwing the ball.  Gavit rushed for 325 yards last week.  But LaLumiere, the team they beat, is helpless.  This game gets close, but not close enough for the Gladiators.

Clark 20, Gavit 14


Lew Wallace (1-4) at East Chicago (1-5)

EAST CHICAGO (10-2-2009) Wallace has given up 120 points in the last three weeks and they have very little manpower.  But EC seemed to quit last week losing by 3 TDs to a weak Central Noble team.  Both these schools are desperately waiting for the basketball season to begin.  It's very shaky to pick EC to win, but Wallace just does not have the players to win any more.

East Chicago 30, Lew Wallace 20


Calumet (4-2) at Whiting (3-3)
 

WHITING (10-2-2009) Calumet has allowed just 53 points all year, but they lost 6-0 to Noll (4-2) last week.  What happened to the running attack?  Whiting is good at home but this is a team that only beat North Newton by 10.  I want to go with Calumet here since the weather will help them.  I can't believe Calumet gets get shut down on the ground again.

Calumet 14, Whiting 12


Munster (4-2) at Hobart (1-5)

HOBART (10-2-2009) Hobart is desperate for wins and Munster has no sympathy.  They've lost two games in a row by one point.  The problem is that Munster likes to throw the ball and this might not be the night for anyone to throw it.  Hobart was without star runner Richard Oglesby last week and they probably can't win here without him and a few others who are injured.

Munster 28, Hobart 14


Kankakee Valley (2-4) at ANDREAN (4-2)

MERRILLVILLE (10-2-2009) KV has played a good schedule and Andrean, with games left against Griffith (3-3) and Lowell (6-0) cannot overlook this game.  This may be close.  Andrean needs to throw the ball and KV doesn't.  By the time you read this, you'll know how bad the Friday weather will be.  I think the Niners can stop KV's run and, if it rains, this could get boring.

ANDREAN 16, KV 7


South Central (1-5) at North Newton (1-5)

MOROCCO (10-2-2009) This is one of the longest drives in Northwest Indiana football for suburban LaPorte down to Newton County.  Is this the worst league in the state or what?  That's why South Central, a power running team, isn't guaranteed a win here.  The Spartans have only defeated River Forest and they only average 12 points a game.  Unless the bus gets hijacked somewhere near Rensselaer, SC wins big.

South Central 35, North Newton 14


Portage (3-3) at Michigan City (5-1)
 

MICHIGAN CITY (10-2-2009) MC's Adam Harmon ran for 213 yards last week on a rainy, muddy field at LC.  But Portage back Jake Dixon and Zach Huston are headed for 1,000 yards each.  On the artificial turf and, I'm assuming that MC is still without QB Rodney Washington, you've got to go with Portage.  We don't know that.  MC hides injuries like Iran hides nuclear weapons.  What we do know is that nobody's held Portage below 20 points in any game this year.

Portage 28, Michigan City  14


LaPorte (4-2) at CROWN POINT (2-4)
 

CROWN POINT (10-2-2009) CP has allowed 158 points in their last four games, but LaPorte has only won a half dozen road games in four years.  The Bulldogs lost by 35 last week while LaPorte lost by 31.  So defensively, this is the probably the 'Game of the Weak'.  It depends on whose ego is more fragile here.  And Crown Point's home on their Homecoming with an offense that is improving.  If the weather's not too bad here, this is another DAC shootout.

CROWN POINT 35, LaPorte 31

 

MERRILLVILLE (5-1) at Valparaiso (3-3)
 

VALPARAISIO (10-2-2009) The two best teams in the DAC and Valpo may get back senior QB Zack Livovich for this one.  Valpo loves the 'Wildcat' (no QB) attack, but that may not work against a good defense and the Pirates shutout LaPorte 31-0 last week and their defensive front will make it a long night for whatever offense Valpo comes up with.

MERRILLVILLE 27, Valparaiso 14
 

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Revised: September 30, 2009 .