Week 8 Picks:  2009 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report by Mark Smith

October 7, 2009

 

 

'Mr. Picker' WEEK SEVEN  (7), 2009 Football Picks in Review: Wrong - 1; Right - 9 = 90.0%;  Season: 70-21, 77.0%
The Pick	The Result
Morton 28, Gary West Side 6	Morton 47-18
Clark 20, Gavit 14	Clark 48-15
East Chicago 30, Lew Wallace 20	East Chicago 35-0
Calumet 14, Whiting 12	Calumet 12-9
Munster 28, Hobart 14	Munster 10-7
ANDREAN 16, KV 7	ANDREAN 44-9
South Central 35, North Newton 14	Wrong... North Newton 14-7
Portage 28, Michigan City  14	Portage  21-19
CROWN POINT 35, LaPorte 31	CROWN POINT 27-17
MERRILLVILLE 27, Valparaiso 14	MERRILLVILLE 35-7

 

WEEK (7) SEVEN ANALYSIS: I don't know how South Central keeps losing. They have a good running attack and on a bad night, in the rain, they could still get just seven points. I would not pick them to win again this season. Something is wrong there that is not outwardly apparent. I didn't think the Portage win over Michigan City was an upset because MC was without QB Rodney Washington. The CP-LaPorte result might have surprised some, but it didn't surprise anyone who's seen LaPorte's road record the last four years. The best pick of the week? Calumet over Whiting by almost the exact score.

 

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)

2008 (final) OVERALL:  145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL:  143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL:  166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL:  170 of 233 = 72.9%

HAMMOND (10-9-2009) The championship game of the worst league in the state of Indiana.  Noll got caught looking ahead last week and lost an impossible game to River Forest by 18 points.  Noll has to have major doubts right now but they will bounce back to cover the spread, which on the computer is 31 points.  Although with Wheeler, which plays the fourth weakest schedule in the state, averaging 51 points a game, the spread is about six TDs.

Wheeler 28, Bishop Noll 7

Rensselaer (5-2) at Sheridan (2-5)

SHERIDAN (10-9-2009) A very difficult game to chart.  Sheridan has won four consecutive 1A Semi state championships, but they surprisingly lost the first four games this year.  The Blackhawks then defeated two bags of leaves in Benton Central (0-7) and Delphi (2-5).  But Sheridan then lost just 21-20 on the road last week at 2A Tipton (6-1).  The Bombers lost 21-7 to Tipton and 21-7 to West Lafayette.  Rensselaer has not defeated Sheridan in five years, but they will this Friday.

Rensselaer 28, Sheridan 21

Whiting (2-5) at River Forest (2-5)

HOBART (10-9-2009) River Forest's biggest upset of the decade was last week's 28-10 win over Noll.  Whiting has allowed almost four TDs a game, but RF has a lot of experience and the weather and field conditions may limit both sides to running the football.  Whiting probably has to throw to win.  If it rains (and it is supposed to), RF gets a second consecutive upset.

River Forest 20, Whiting 18

Calumet (5-2) at South Central (1-6)

UNION MILLS (10-9-2009) South Central is a major disappointment.  I thought there was a chance they'd be 6-1 now, but they have found ways to lose.  Calumet won a big road game at Whiting last week and they'll roll in here with confidence.  Calumet is a bad weather team and they welcome the rain.  I thought this was an even game at the start of the year, but then again, I used to think Brett Farve was good for pro football, too.

Calumet 35, South Central 12

Highland (1-6) at Kankakee Valley (2-5)

WHEATFIELD (10-9-2009) Here's a game that is directly affected by the state tournament draw coming after week eight instead of after week seven.  The draw may match KV up with a team they don't want to see like Lowell (7-0) or Plymouth (7-0).  It will be a little discouraging if that occurs.  Not knowing their fate, the Kougars can fight on.  There's nobody in 4A Sectional Nine that Highland, which has scored just 35 points all season, can draw which will dishearten them.  KV will have a lot more hope Friday than they will after next Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.

Kankakee Valley 28, Highland 7

Hammond (4-3) at Gavit (2-5)

HAMMOND (10-9-2009) Gavit is actually 2-4-1 because they tied Calumet.  Hammond was shelled 63-0 at Lowell last week, but they held a couple of guys out for that game.  The Gladiators have coughed up 39 points a game, but Hammond had some internal problems last week.  I like Hammond high in one of the closest games of the week.

Hammond 27, Gavit 25

(Indianapolis) Arlington (4-3) at Clark (5-2)

HAMMOND (10-9-2009) You want to be the home team when there's 140 miles between the two schools.  A quick look at the results show that Arlington has lost only to superpower 4A No. 1 Cathedral, undefeated Kokomo and Nap Town rival Broad Ripple 14-6.  Clark's loss was by 38 points to Morton (6-1).  That's not an equal schedule.  But there is that 2-1/2 hour bus ride and the expected rain.  The Pioneers will make this close.

Arlington 27, Clark 20

LOWELL (7-0) at Munster (5-2)

MUNSTER (10-9-2009) The Devils have shut out Highland, Hobart and Hammond in succession and they haven't shut out four teams in a row in 71 years.  Since Munster does not start with an 'H', that shutout streak probably ends here.  Munster has switched quarterbacks and I don't know why.  This is almost guaranteed to be a low-scoring game because of the effort of the Munster defense and the recent short-circuit on offense.  It will be close for a while, but Munster can't score enough to win.

LOWELL 28, Munster 13


Griffith (4-3) at ANDREAN (5-2)

MERRILLVILLE (10-9-2009) Northwest Indiana's most overrated rivalry.  This is often two good teams going head-to-head, but it doesn't have the tightness of CP-Merrillville, the true (not-media fabricated) dislike of Portage-Valparaiso or the tradition of Whiting-Clark and Lowell-Griffith.  Both teams want this game because they started slowly.  The Panthers love bad weather where their running game rules, but Andrean has the top passer in the area in QB Richard Schmidt (95 of 156, 1,294 yards, 17 TDs, 5 interceptions) and a defense that has allowed 600 rushing yards all year.  Plus, WR Demetri Blanco is back to compliment Mike Skinner (31 catches, 559 yards, 5 TDs).  In 75 degree weather Andrean wins.  But the summer has gone away.  The Panthers win on Broadway.

Griffith 17, ANDREAN 14


CROWN POINT (3-4) at Chesterton (5-2)

CHESTERTON (10-9-2009) What's gotten into CP's Mason Popovich, who ran for as many yards last week (251) as he had previously all year (254)?  The Trojans have scored 21 or more in every game this season and CP's defense might not be physically strong enough for this team.  Jon Watson and the Trojan option is a low-risk offense, too.  In the mud.  In the rain.  The home team comes on strong here.

Chesterton 28, CROWN POINT 14


Michigan City (5-2) at LaPorte (4-3)

LaPORTE (10-9-2009) Another big rivalry game that has never depended on whether either side was having a winning season.  These schools sit 10 miles apart and LaPorte welcomes a shot at their neighbor after losing two road games in a row.  In the last four years, LaPorte is 14-7 at home and 7-15 on the road, largely against the exact same teams.  If MC is still without injured QB Rodney Washington and LaPorte is without injured tailback Nick Latchford (and maybe injured QB Dustin DeMuth), the home field deal may go out the window.  One player who is not injured is Adam Harmon and MC is going to ride him to a key win.

Michigan City 21, LaPorte 17

Valparaiso (3-4) at Portage (4-3)

PORTAGE (10-9-2009) If this was Las Vegas, you'd take this game off the board.  Valpo lost Nick Thompson for the season last week, but they may get QB Zach Livovich and Issac Bullock back eventually.  The question is, with the high school concept of hiding inures, when is 'eventually?'  I'm going to guess that Valpo holds all injured players (the ones who can return) for the post-season).  In that scenario, it's very hard to argue against Portage at home on the artificial turf.  Valparaiso at one time was the better team.  But then, the Minnesota Twins, at one time, were seven games behind Detroit.

Portage 32, Valparaiso 17