Week 8 NW Indiana HS Football Picks

'Mr. Picker' WEEK-7, 2011 Football Picks in Review: Sept. 30-Oct. 1, 2011 Wrong - 1; Right - 9 = 90.0%
The Pick	The Result
Noll 20, River Forest 12	Noll 19-12
Gavit 21, Clark 20	Gavit 21-7
Hobart 26, Munster 20	(wrong) Munster 41-6
Griffith 28, Highland 0	Griffith 49-14
LOWELL 32, Hammond 14	LOWELL 33-6
ANDREAN 35, KV 7	ANDREAN 46-0
Portage 16, Mich. City 13	Portage 12-7
CROWN POINT 38, LaPorte 14	CP 42-0
MERRILLVILLE 34, Valpo 17	MERRILLVILLE 31-28
LAKE CENTRAL 21, Chesterton 16	LC 38-7

WEEK SEVEN (7) ANALYSIS: Not a lot went against form here. The Hobart pick was an upset and it never came close to happening. After some shaky weeks, it's becoming obvious who the favorites are even in the seemingly close games.

BEST PICK: Noll over River Forest by almost the exact score. The Portage-Michigan City game pick was low-scoring in general, even though the spread was a little off. A good week even with some key games.

2011 Season, 1st 7-weeks: 53 of 78 = 67.9%

Mr. Picker (Through the Years)
2010 (final) OVERALL: 135 of 184 = 73.3%
2009 (final) OVERALL: 154 of 212 = 72.6%
2008 (final) OVERALL: 145 of 193 = 75.1%
2007 (final) OVERALL: 143 of 188 = 76.0%
2006 (final) OVERALL: 166 of 217 = 76.4%
2005 (final) OVERALL: 170 of 233 = 72.9%

WEEK (8) EIGHT: It's the last really strong week of the season for match ups and the weather will affect the games, but in a good way. With dry conditions and temperatures in the low-70s and high 60s, teams that can throw the ball and those with great speed will be happy. Games sometimes become more predictable late in the year because the weaker teams and the teams with small rosters lose depth and tire out. We forget that the boys have now been playing for nine consecutive weeks (counting the scrimmage) and it gets tiring.

Teams get a boost when the playoffs begin because JV and freshmen games end and everybody in the program is available for part time duty on Friday night. That doesn't mean much to the 2,000-kid DAC schools or the tiny Whitings and South Centrals who already have everybody who can do anything on the varsity. It's teams like Lowell, Griffith and Andrean who have strong varsity teams, who can add a couple of players who have been improving on the JV, but are blocked at their position by an upperclassman. You can play five quarters a week. If there's no JV game, you can play all four quarters on the varsity and fill in on things like special teams. One play can make a difference in a playoff game.

The state tournament draw is Sunday, Oct. 9 at 6 p.m. (CDT) and teams will react to the draw differently in week nine.

Bowman Academy (4-3) at East Chicago (4-3):

EAST CHICAGO (10-6-2011) EC averages 34 a game. Bowman averages 32 and they both give up all kinds of yards. In 65-70 degree comfort, here's a game you might want to pay to see. Passers Everett Coleman of EC and Antwon Pipkins of Bowman will get on the scoreboard, but EC is a more advanced team. Take the "over."

East Chicago 56, Bowman Academy 35

Gary Roosevelt (2-6) at BOONE GROVE (0-7):

CROWN POINT (10-6-2011) This is one of the tougher games of the week because Boone has to see this as their best chance for a win in 2011. The Velt didn't even play last week as I think Gary Lighthouse's team (last week's Roosevelt opponent) has folded. On their home-away-from-home at the Crown Point Junior Bulldog field, Boone gets Cody Poynter into the end zone four times and wins a close one.

BOONE GROVE 28, Roosevelt 20

Calumet (1-6) at South Central (3-4):

UNION MILLS (10-6-2011) This one won't be close. Long ride for Calumet and I think they are one of the teams that tends to wear down by October. SC can close out the schedule with a couple of home wins and they will get that started in decisive fashion.

South Central 35, Calumet 14

Hammond (5-2) at Gavit (4-3):

HAMMOND (10-6-2011) Gavit's won three in a row and they smoked out Clark last week. At full strength, Hammond wins, but I don't know if the Wildcats are at full strength. This is very close, but the Cats stave off an upset.

Hammond 28, Gavit 26

Highland (1-6) at Kankakee Valley (2-5):

WHEATFIELD (10-6-2011) Both these teams have made slow improvement this year and they both have to see this game as winnable. Both teams got beaten like a dusty rug last week, but both have shown resilience. Highland can throw the ball better and the night will favor that, but KV will pull out a close game at the end.

KV 20, Highland 14

LOWELL (5-2) at Munster (3-4):

MUNSTER (10-6-2011) A defensive struggle with two very good defenses. A warm, dry night favors Munster, but the artificial turf actually favors Lowell's running game and pass rush. The Devils are going to have to wear down the Munster defensive front and that will take time in a game that will be more conservative than the FOX Network.

LOWELL 12, Munster 7

Griffith (5-2) at ANDREAN (7-0):

MERRILLVILLE (10-6-2011) It will all come down to whether Griffith can run the ball on the 59ers, who have allowed just 60 points all season. I don't think they can. There is no second option and they don't have enough depth to trade possessions. In the end. This isn't that close.

ANDREAN 27, Griffith 13

Michigan City (1-6) at LaPorte (2-5):

LaPORTE (10-6-2011) Arch rivals battle it out on the real grass in LaPorte. The Slicers have lost five in a row and there's a temptation here to see MC pulling an upset. But the Wolves have lost six in a row. Here's a good example of teams that have been getting beat on all year waiting for their chance. Going back to what I thought of these two at the start of the year, I'd stay with the home team.

LaPorte 34, Michigan City 24

Valparaiso (3-4) at Portage (3-4):

PORTAGE (10-6-2011) Portage has two major upsets over Chesterton and Merrillville and they go for a third here. The Indians have so much speed and we have been warned not to pick against them. But Valpo is much better. This game isn't close.

Valparaiso 49, Portage 17

CROWN POINT (4-3) at Chesterton (4-3):

CHESTERTON (10-6-2011) There is still a thought that Chesterton is through for the season without starting quarterback Chris Katsafaros (31-62, 492 yards, 4 TDs), who suffered a knee injury two weeks ago. The Trojans can't control the ball without their QB and they can't stop CP all night.

CROWN POINT 27, Chesterton 9

MERRILLVILLE (4-3) at LAKE CENTRAL (7-0):

ST. JOHN (10-6-2011) Lake Central has rode an opportunistic defense (8 defensive TDs) into the top-10, but that defense meets a big challenge here. The Pirates average 25 points a game and they have scored 116 in the last three games. LC's David Yancey looks like Michigan's Denard Robinson, but the task here will be to outscore one of the most potent teams in these parts. On a dry, fast field, the Pirates pull the upset.

MERRILLVILLE 35, LAKE CENTRAL 28