Week 9 Picks:  2004 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 14, 2004

WEEK EIGHT (8) ANALYSIS:

Roosevelt's OT victory over West Side one year after West Side beat Roosevelt 78-0 falls into the goes-around-comes-around category. Would Velt have been so motivated had West Side stopped at 50-0 last year? Morton was unlucky to lose 19-18 to Highland. There wasn't much difference between Crown Point and Chesterton. Lowell outgained Hobart and led most of the way but Hobart clearly is playing with a lot of confidence, even when they are being outplayed. Portage simply may be a better team than Valpo right now.

(Week One) 11 of 14, 78.5%

(Week Two) 8 of 13, 61.5%

(Week Three) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Four) 11 of 12, 91.7%

(Week Five) 10 of 12, 83.3%

(Week Six) 7 of 12, 58.3 %

(Week Seven) 8 of 12, 66.7%

(Week Eight) 7 of 12, 58.3%

2004 Season to date, 70 of 99, 70.7%

WEEK NINE (9): Oct. 14, 2004

Morton (2-6) 28, Hammond (2-6) 6

Hammond doesn't have much depth and Morton, if they begin the game running the ball, should easily be able to wear them down. Hammond averages just over 200 total yards and in wet, cold weather, it's unlikely they'll score big Friday. Morton has to fumble three times for Hammond to win.

South Central (2-6) 21, River Forest (2-6) 16

River Forest has given up 216 points in their last four games and they've got to hope to hold the line figuratively and literally here. RF QB Matt Bigott (95-of-201, 14 TDs, 14 INTs) throws so often, the defense is on the field a lot. That plays right into South Central's hands and they'll run tailback Greg Garner (150 carries – 920 yards) to control the ball on a cold night and to get him to 1,000 yards.

East Chicago (6-2) 28, St. Laurence (3-4) 24

The Cardinals didn't benefit much from a 75-0 victory over Wirt, a team they should replace on the schedule. The Cardinals' TB Sammy Daniels (155 carries, 1,532 yards) will get one more shot at a team that does not know him. The weather will make this game close. St. Laurence has struggled in the Chicagoland Suburban Catholic League, but they could still be a formidable team.

Lake Station (3-5) 20, Clark (0-8) 8

Clark has given up at least 40 points three weeks in a row, but they get a shot at a Lake Station team that may be worn out, if last week's 38-0 loss to Gavit is any indication. This is the time of year when it's tough to play, but the Pioneers have to be prepared for an all-out effort from Gavit in their final chance (Clark opens the playoffs against Gavit) to get a win this season. Lake Station senior Neal Anderson goes for 1,000 yards.

Valparaiso (4-4) 27, Lake Central (1-7) 7

Valparaiso has lost a lot of games they could have won and it's unlikely they will overlook this game. The Vikings drew Michigan City (3-5) in the state tournament so they have a future. But the loss last week means they need a win. LC is a bunch of 'Desperate Football Players' after allowing 159 points in the last four games. But they need to rely on the passing of Steve Apostol to Dave Hoffmaster and that's a problem on what should be a cold, wet night.

Crown Point (3-5) 37, Michigan City (3-5) 28

Crown Point is now featuring sophomore tailback Jon Sertich (108 carries, 669 yards) and sophomore WR Matt Ernest (32 catches, 734 yards) around junior QB Matt Jansen (94 of 181, 1,356 yards, 10 TDs, 7 INTs) on offense and MC has been vulnerable to the pass all season. The Wolves should do well running the ball (they have 700 yards rushing in the past 3 weeks) and the weather makes this closer than it might be.

Andrean (6-2) 24, Munster (4-4) 14

Word is that leading rusher Prince Kwateng (6-0, 210) might return for Munster this week although rain might cancel that plan. Andrean has to recover from a 34-point loss last week and their game is not suited to bad weather. But Munster was 0-of-7 passing last week and they really can't score much.

Griffith (7-1) 35, Hobart (7-1) 14

The Panthers match up very well with Hobart physically and they didn't have to go hard for four quarters last week like the Brickies did. Griffith has rushed for 3,100 yards and Hobart's powerful defense will be overmatched here. Weather could help the Brickies, but playing on the road again will not. Hobart only averages about 240 yards a game and you need to score to beat Griffith, which has put up 21 points or more in every game this season.

Kankakee Valley (5-3) 27, Whiting (8-0) 16

On the road and in bad weather, this is Whiting's toughest test. KV has run for 1,800 yards in eight games and Whiting gave up 200 yards rushing to Clark last week even though they won 43-15. Whiting has played one of the state's weakest schedules and they confront a motivated KV team with a veteran QB in Gentry Brown. This might be considered an upset but it is a 1A team on the road against a 4A.

Lowell (5-3) 40, Highland (4-4) 16

Lowell has allowed less than 800 yards rushing all season and Highland's Andrew Helmer is a 45% passer. If the game stays close, kicker Sam Porter has pulled out two games with last minute kicks for the Trojans, two of three games Highland has won in the fourth quarter. But you don't want to play a team after they just lost a game they should have won. Lowell outgained Hobart and lost 9-6 last Friday. They need a win and the rushing attack (300 yards per game) should roll on a cold night.

Merrillville (7-1) 14, Chesterton (5-3) 7

A defensive struggle as the Trojans try to respond after a 17-14 loss at Crown Point. The Pirates' defense should dominate this game, but Chesterton can keep it very close. Merrilville QB Evan Parker was 10-of-10 passing last week for 230 yards. Both teams use the shot gun and they may have to abandon it in the rain and cold. Traditionally, scores go down as the temperatures go down.

Portage (6-2) 26, LaPorte (5-3) 23

A rematch of last season's 22-21 LaPorte win that gave them the DAC title. Portage may go without two-time 1,000-yard rusher Antoine Brown who has a shoulder injury. LaPorte has a run-based offense that's built for bad weather. But Portage is at home and the backups to Brown aren't bad players.

OUT OF TOWN...

Class 5A No. 4 Penn (7-1)

OSCEOLA - The largest school in the northern part of the state plays in one of the weakest leagues, the Northern Indiana Conference (NIC). Penn beat Valparaiso 17-14, Elkhart Central 50-21 and lost to Ben Davis 21-7 in the only games that matter so far.

The Kingsmen have smoked out Clay 47-0, Washington 48-0, Adams 56-0 and Riley 48-6 in games that just didn't create a competition.

Forget the point totals against helpless foes, Penn is a defense-oriented team with all-stater Thomas Bemenderfer (6-4, 260) at defensive tackle along with linemen Chris Keough (6-0, 225) and linebacker Ryan Moody (5-8, 190).

Senior Andy O'Connell has scored three TDs on punt returns, three of Penn's five kick return TDs. Junior QB Nick Keim has 10 TD passes and HB Evan Sobecki is a rushing, receiving threat.

The Kingsmen open the state playoffs against Adams (0-8) and they'll then see a rematch with Elkhart Central in the semifinals. Penn would then face Mishawaka (6-2), a team Penn will play Friday in the regular season finale.

It appears that Penn would travel to face the Sectional one winner, meaning they would likely host Merrillville. The Kingsmen are again going to be a problem.

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Revised: October 13, 2004 .