Week 9 Picks:  2005 NW Indiana High School Football

A USA-365.com Special Report By Mark Smith

October 12, 2005

WEEK-8 ANALYSIS:  LaPorte's Lance Juergensen played after it appeared he wouldn't (rib injury on Sept. 30) and he does make a difference. Ditto for Highland QB Andrew Helmer, who returned after four weeks out of action to spark the Trojans. Bad sign for Bishop Noll that they didn't even come close to Calumet.  Even when you skip (as I did) some of the obvious blowouts (North Judson over River Forest, Merrillville over LC) this was a pretty easy week to predict score-wise.  The Crown Point, Portage, Gavit and Lowell games came out almost exactly as they should have.  But the picks should be getting better by the eighth week of the year. Incidentally, the state game of the week does not count in these totals.

WEEK 8 (2005) PIX recap

WEEK 8: 9 of 12, 75.0%

WEEK 7: 10 of 12, 83.3%

WEEK 6: 9 OF 13, 69.2%

WEEK 5: 10 OF 14, 71.4%

WEEK 4: 9 OF 12, 75.0%

WEEK 3: 7 of 13, 53.8%

WEEK 2: 11 of 15, 73.3%

WEEK 1: 16 of 20, 80%
2005 Season: 81 of 111, 72.9%

2004 Overall: 156 of 216, 72.2%

WEEK 9 (NINE) PREDICTIONS 10-14-2005

Whiting (8-0) 35, Kankakee Valley (6-2) 21

WHITING  – With unusually warm weather on Friday, this game won't be close. Whiting has been waiting for a chance all year and KV has not defeated a quality team (with the possible exception of Wheeler) all season. Although, for that matter, neither has Whiting.  I totally disregard Whiting's weak 6-0 win over Clark last week. They were probably looking to this week's matchup.   Whiting is questionable against the run but KV has faced just one passing team in Rensselaer and they couldn't handle them.
 

Gavit (3-5)  22, Calumet (3-5) 14

HAMMOND – This should be close because Calumet can throw. But Gavit and 1,000-yard rusher Victor Ayala (131 carries, 1,267 yards) can run. Cal's Mike Alvarado has thrown for 13 TDs. On a warm night, this will be close.


Clark (3-5)  21, Lake Station (1-7) 7

LAKE STATION - Clark had to be lifted by a near upset of Whiting (8-0), but its got to be a low-scoring game for the Pioneers to win.  
Other than Crown Point, Clark may be the most improved team in NW Indiana.  I think Lake Station is through for the year. When your numbers are limited, there's only so much you can do.


Wheeler (3-5) 38,  Bishop Noll (2-6) 16

HAMMOND - Wheeler is finally beginning to fulfill the potential they had at the start of the year. They have still allowed more points than they have scored but QB Devin Schluter (87 of 181, 1,433 yards, 13 TDs, 12 INTs) is consistently effective and the running attack has always been better than average.  Wheeler needs to put a whipping on Noll to get ready for the sectional quarterfinal against Rensselaer (7-1).


North Newton (3-5)   35,  South Newton (6-2)  34
KENTLAND  - Both teams like to throw the ball, but North Newton has played a tougher schedule.  The Newton County civil war will be wide open as QB Eric Watt has thrown 200 passes in eight games. He was 12 of 22 for 173 yards and two TDs last week in a 28-20 win over weak North White. The Spartans got smoked out by West Central but they have played a significantly tougher schedule than South Newton has. If good weather holds, this could go OT and both team will find the end zone early and often.


North Judson (5-3)  28,  Twin Lakes (6-2)   20

MONTICELLO -  Very hard to figure Judson and it's even harder to figure them against the Class 3A No. 10 Indians. Judson had three players rush for over 100 yards in a 62-6 rout of River Forest last week but RF has allowed 364 points so you cant tell anything by that game.  Judson has struggled with anything other than 1A or 2A teams so don't bet your sister on this game.

LaPorte (7-1) 29, Portage (2-6) 16

LaPORTE - Even good Portage teams had problems with LaPorte and this might not be a good one.  LaPorte got 329 total yards last week.  Portage has internal problems and is unpredictable.  The Indians have lost five in a row, but none of the six losses have been by more than 14 points. They have led four different teams only to give the lead up in the second half. Portage outgained Valpo last week and lost.

Griffith (8-0) 33, Hobart (4-4) 23

HOBART -  It'll be interesting to see how Griffith bounces back. Hobart can throw the ball and that's Grifith's weakness.  The Panthers were held to a season-low 251 yards last week and they face another physical team this Friday.  Griffith has not faced tough teams consecutively all season and they need this because they'll have some soft sectional games this month. Hobart QB Josh Miracle rushes his throws and he was 15-of-36 last week. He has the potential and the receivers.

Lowell (4-4) 41, Highland (4-4) 21

LOWELL - Lowell has won three in a row and has not allowed more than seven points in any of the last four games.  Highland regained QB Andrew Helmer last week and  he hit 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards  and a TD while running for two scores in a 31-14 whipping of Morton.  Lowell has to feel good not only about the win streak but a sectional opener with Gary Roosevelt (3-5).  Highland can score on Lowell through the air but Lowell can score on Highland on the ground. Ground wins.

Merrillville (6-2) 28,  Chesterton (2-6) 10

CHESTERTON  – I don't know how many passes Chesterton's Alex Beierwalter is going to complete into this secondary.  Merrillville's defense has two shut outs in a row and they may be welcoming the challenge of Beierwalter who passed for 280 yards on Crown Point last week in a 34-17 loss.  The Pirates are still not gaining the yards they should on the ground, but the longer they go, the more time the offensive line gets. Chesterton's inability to run the ball (just 38 yards last week) means they can't win here.

Crown Point (8-0) 52, Michigan City (5-3)  21

CROWN POINT -  This might be a mismatch. One of the region's worst pass defenses goes against one of the region's top QBs in CP's Matt Jansen.  I'm not sure about Michigan City, which is a vastly different team on different nights. MC has Ryan Fics, who has run for 1,700 yards.  But he's basically been stopped by good defenses and the MC offense -- they can't throw to save their lives. CP has the top run defense in NW Indiana. That's a problem on this night as CP will be psyched up to complete an undefeated season and a Duneland Conference championship run.

STATE GAME of the WEEK...

Class 1A No. 4 West Central (8-0) at Class 1A No. 1 Pioneer (8-0)

ROYAL CENTER  - A rare meeting of undefeated teams in the final week of the regular season, something coaches don't want, but fans love.

Class 1A No, 5 Whiting will have scouts here, because Pioneer may show them how to handle WC in the expected WC-Whiting game on Nov. 4. Pioneer runs the ball 98% of the time and they average 45 points a game, the sixth best average in the state. West Central has won 27 of their last 34, but they've been blown out by Pioneer two years in a row.

Kalyn Ballard (6-0, 190) carried 18 times for 134 yards last week and he has 13 TDs out of WC's flex-bone option attack, a variation of the wishbone. West Central HB Jake Fritz (109 carries, 1,097 yards and 17 TDs) has dominated all year but he'll be going against a Pioneer defense that has four shutouts. 

Pioneer has won 37 consecutive regular season games and they have rushed for over 350 yards four times already this season. Halfback Matt Vianco (107 carries, 1,032 yards) has rushed for a TD in every game this year.  Pioneer also uses a type of veer running attack and they are 51-7 the last five seasons. Vianco (5-10, 187) is aided greatly by his offensive line.  The secret to Pioneer may be that they have 60 players on the roster (a lot for 1A) and they have eight linemen over 230 pounds (an awful lot), several underclassmen.  Stopping them from running is easier said than done.

It's hard to tell from a distance which lines will win out here. The two teams' schedules aren't that much different. Neither of these teams plays anything larger than a 2A school although Lafayette Catholic, a 27-13 loser to Pioneer, is the equivalent of 3A or 4A.  West Central has a very good class. Pioneer has a very good program. All past history points to a decisive Pioneer win at home.

Pioneer 28, West Central 7

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Revised: October 16, 2005 .