Week Eight Picks:  NW Indiana High School Football

- by Mark Smith

WEEK SEVEN (7) ANALYSIS: In retrospect, Gavit was 0-6 and overdue. Lake Station may be wearing down due to youth and lack of total players. Hobart's upset chances against Chesterton were gone in the 20-30 miles-an-hour wind gusts which eliminated the Brickies' passing game (2 of 14, 2 Interceptions) and made it easy for the run-oriented Trojans. Clark appears to be getting stronger (364 yards rushing). Griffith had some suspended players but EC is virtually helpless against a good running team. Highland's losses indicate that they are young and not as physically strong as some other teams. New Prairie is a bad weather team. Obviously the victories by Providence and Valparaiso were very predictable.

WEEK EIGHT  (8)

A rare difficult week to pick games this season, exaggerated by the state tournament draw Wednesday, which annually distracts some teams.  In the prohibitive mismatch category this Friday are Andrean over Kankakee Valley, Lew Wallace over Horace Mann, Morton over Lake Station and Griffith over Highland. There's only one truly big game but it's the biggest game of the season.

No. 7 (5A) Portage (6-1, 4-1) at No. 4 (5A) Valparaiso (6-1, 5-0)

PORTAGE (10-11-2002) - The two top teams in the toughest conference in northern Indiana go head-to-head for the lead in the Duneland Athletic Conference (DAC) with just one week to go. It's true that No. 10 Chesterton (6-1, 4-1 DAC) is still in the race but a Valparaiso win virtually ensures a league championship because the Vikings' final game is against Hobart (2-5). Portage finishes with LaPorte (4-3), so an Indians victory keeps the race alive to the final week.

Valparaiso's only loss was in week one against undefeated, top-ranked Penn (7-0), one of the nation's top 10 teams.  Portage's only loss was 42-40 at Chesterton in week six, a game in which the Indians' gained almost 500 yards. I think the Portage loss to Chesterton was somewhat of a fluke. The region's two best teams will be on the field Friday night in Valparaiso.

Early weather says the field will be dry and the temperature around 60 degrees and that means happy days for two elite quarterbacks, Portage's Adam Hasiak (136 of 217, 1,656 yards - 17 TDs, 7 INTs) and Valparaiso's Jason Renn (74 of 120, 1,212 yards - 13 TDs, 2 INTs), who along with Andrean's Brett Goins, are the top three QBs in an area that has several good signal-callers this season.

Valparaiso is so tough because there's no defense Renn hasn't seen in four years on the varsity and at 6-foot and 215 pounds, he's hard to intimidate. Portage is a problem because Hasiak is very mobile, releases the ball quickly and can run if you drop seven people into pass coverage.

There's a chance that the Indians will try to establish the run early but I think that would be perceived by the Vikings as playing scared in a big game on the road. Eventually, Portage will try to control the ball with short passes. Hasiak averages 12 yards a completion (compared to 16.6 for Renn) but the Portage left-hander completes 62.6% of his passes and throws 31 times a game. Valparaiso has to force the issue with extra defensive backs and blitzers from all angles. Look for Nick Windsor (6-0, 231) and Chris Yaros (6-0, 213) to answer that call.

Top Portage receiver Dan Paulsen (46 catches, 568) will draw special coverage in the Valpo secondary, led by 6-4 Jeff Samardzija. To my knowledge, Milton Rivera (5-10, 155), a high speed sophomore who caught 20 passes in four games, has not played the last three weeks. The Indians may use a two tight end set involving Steve Vaught (6-1, 210) and Frank Knez (6-2, 185). They can run or pass out of that set. Senior Paul Reed (5-6, 140) as the lone back in Portage's 'shotgun' four wide receiver 'west coast' offense is a very effective runner on a dry field.

Portage's defense has shut out East Chicago, Lake Central, Hobart and Michigan City but they aren't that good. All four of those teams have losing records. Crown Point passed for 229 yards against the Indians and Chesterton ran for 437 yards against Portage. Clearly, Valpo can move the ball on them.

Viking halfback Matt Gast (58 carries, 432 yards), a 6-foot-3, 175 pound senior can grind it out behind an inexperienced but big and improving offensive line led by big Ben Potts (6-4, 285).  Renn has the luxury of two 6-foot-4 wide receivers in Samardzija (27 carries, 651 yards) and Adrian Demko plus speedy Danny Wiggins (5-8, 155).

Portage DB Dan Paulsen (6-1, 165) has seven interceptions but the Indians have to get three or four turnovers in this game because Valparaiso figures to dominate the line of scrimmage.

I like Valparaiso to start quickly, rolling up a 14-0 or 21-0 lead. Portage is well-suited to come back and Hasiak will pass 50 times. The Indians will close within seven in the second half in a very entertaining game. But Portage can't run the ball against Valparaiso and that will eventually decide this match-up. Valparaiso will win the Duneland Conference title because Crown Point will beat Chesterton.

Valparaiso 38, Portage 28

Mark's other picks:

Clark (3-4) 26, Calumet (1-6) 8

Clark's running game and defense is much improved. Calumet has scored 54 points all season and only two in the last three weeks.

Bishop Noll (4-3) 30, Whiting (5-2) 17

Worth the price of admission. Whiting's Vinnie Donovan will throw 40 times but the Noll running attack (1,700 yards rushing) will wear down the Oilers.

Gary Roosevelt (2-5) 28, Gary West Side (3-4) 24

The weather contributed to Velt's 45-0 loss at Clark last week. With the passing game back on-line, they can outscore West Side.

Hammond (2-5) 40, Gavit (1-6) 21

Hammond's been getting crushed out of town but they still want to dominate Hammond rivals. Gavit will score because John White (6-0, 215) can run on Hammond high.

East Chicago (1-6) 45, Wirt (4-3) 28

The Cardinals have been waiting for a team that's not too strong in either line. This will be a track meet with Sammy Daniels and Jamaal Garrett winning the race for EC.

Lake Central (3-4) 28, Muskegon, Mich. (5-1) 26

Muskegon is the second ranked big school team in Michigan and has lost only to Lakewood (Ohio) St. Edward 20-15. But Michigan football is pretty lame, even compared to Indiana football, which is not that strong (compared to Illinois and Ohio). LC can pull off the upset.

Wheeler (4-3) 30, North Newton (2-5) 14

A mismatch. North Newton's been lucky to win twice.

LaPorte (4-3) 42, Michigan City (2-5) 6  

The Wolves will be lucky to score against a LaPorte defense that's allowed only 68 points all season.

Griffith (4-3) 34, Highland (4-3) 12

Highland is easily overpowered at the line of scrimmage and Griffith's option attack is far too much for them if their personnel problems (suspensions) have been worked out.

MERRILLVILLE (2-5) 22, Hobart (3-4) 21

A rivalry game. Merrillville's sophomore QB is due for a good time and he can have it against the Brickies, who have had trouble in close games.

Munster (5-2) 17, LOWELL (5-2) 10

Defense-oriented teams, to say the least. I don't believe that Lowell has ever beaten Munster in a regular season game but the Mustangs remember a 22-21 playoff upset last October.

CROWN POINT (5-2) 33, Chesterton (6-1) 24

I don't think that Chesterton, which gave up 20 points to LaPorte and 40 to Portage can stop Crown Point, which is coming off a major victory at LaPorte.

RADIO - TV

The Portage-Valparaiso game will be on WEFM (95.9 FM).  WJOB (1230 AM) will carry Highland and Griffith but may use their entertaining 'bonus coverage' concept to carry late portions of the Lowell-Munster game if Griffith blows out Highland as expected.  WYIN (Channel 56) is fulfilling a 'pledge night' promise to air Wheeler.

Reportedly, they'll stop that practice because it puts some lame ball games on the air, like last week's Wheeler-South Central snooze-fest. Cable Channel 3 is bypassing Hobart and Merrillville (the final page in a traditional running area rivalry) and Chesterton and Crown Point (the final regular season game ever at CPHS), No. 2 Muskegon, Michigan at Lake Central and and Lowell and Munster (both teams are 5-2) because they 'wanted to do a game for the Hammond audience.'

Forget about the Whiting-Morton game they did earlier this year. The truth is, the Merrillville-based station has not done one league game in the undisputed top conference (3 teams in the top 10 in Class 5A) in northern Indiana (the DAC) all season and five game in the lesser, mismatch-friendly Lake Athletic Conference.  While No. 4 Valparaiso and No, 10 Chesterton have yet to make a TV appearance, five of the games on Channel 3 this season have been dismal mismatches decided by 20 points or more. Hammond and Gavit, the 6th consecutive LAC game on Channel 3 this Friday, should be a similar rout.

In recent years, Channel 3 has given blanket coverage to the Highland, Hammonds, Munsters and Griffiths as if the cable station was an arm of Hammond-based radio station WJOB, which  has always centered coverage on those schools.  Remember that Channel 3 did not schedule one game involving Hebron's top-ranked girls team (who were state finals' favorites all last season) but had the 'Ridge Road' schools on several times. Since they do not depend on sponsorship or ratings to do games (local cable has no ratings, they do games as a service to the communities in which the games are aired), Channel 3 needs to have someone reevaluate why they are covering some schools and giving lip service to others. It's a large oversight that Valparaiso and Chesterton, two top-10 big school teams, have not been on Lake County TV all season while Munster, Highland and Griffith have all been on TV twice.

Hammond vs. Gavit?  Wheeler vs. North Newton?  

This is a very dark weekend for local TV football coverage.