Week Five Picks:  NW Indiana High School Football

- by Mark Smith

WEEK Four (4) Predictions:

Wrong - 3; Right - 9
The Pick The Result
LaPorte 17, Chesterton 12  Chesterton 21-20 (OT) 
Munster 20, ANDREAN 14 ANDREAN 20-10
LOWELL  10, Highland 9 Highland 23-13
Bishop Noll 27, Calumet 20  Bishop Noll  50-6
Morton 28, Whiting 14  Morton 40-12
River Forest 30, Lake Station 12  River Forest  14-11 (OT)
Griffith 24, (Mishawaka) Marian 12  Griffith 42-14
Kankakee Valley 21, North Newton 14 Kankakee Valley 38-14
CROWN POINT 26, Hobart 7 CROWN POINT  21-20
Clark 8, Gavit 7 Clark 10-7
(S. Bend) St. Joseph's 35, E. Chicago 21 St. Joseph's  35-20
Portage 27, MERRILLVILLE 14 Portage 28-14
Week 4:  9 of 12  =  75.0% Season:  34 of 46  = 73.9%

ANALYSIS:  Lowell's injured running backs (Toby Goetz, Randy Lukasik) couldn't play and Highland's rush leader Brett Bach did. Chesterton was very fortunate to beat LaPorte.  To be honest, I still don't think Andrean is a better team than Munster but the 59ers beat them decisively without injured FB-LB Rob Caldwell.  I can't explain that one.

               Mark's Picks - WEEK 5

Other than Portage-Crown Point, the big game this week is Chesterton (4-0) visiting defending Duneland Athletic Conference (DAC) and region champion Valparaiso.  The visiting Trojans have a solid 34-3 win over Highland (3-1) and a somewhat fortunate 21-20 overtime victory over LaPorte last week.  Chesterton has rushed for 1,211 (303. 6 per game) yards behind a big offensive line led by senior Spencer West (6-2, 295). That weight is not a misprint. Miles Hiteman (5-9, 230) holds up his end as does guard Rich Rosetti (6-0, 225).  The Trojans are a power team with fullbacks Nick Johnson (6-1, 200) and Jim Sosnowski (5-11, 190) around junior QB Ryan Kelley (5-9, 170).  They've got to beat Valparaiso up on the offensive and defensive lines.  LaPorte's Kevin Brandy hit 11 of 20 for 195 yards against Chesterton last week so they'll be reworking the secondary this week before they get on the bus headed west.

Valparaiso is the region's best team although Portage would argue that.  The Vikings, who were 13-2 last season and returned virtually all their skill position players, lost 31-7 at top-ranked Penn to start the year before blanking Gary Roosevelt 55-0, LaPorte 23-0 and Michigan City 55-0.  The difference between Chesterton's game with LaPorte and Valpo's is ominous.

Valpo's Jason Renn (49 of 78, 872) has thrown for an amazing 11 touchdowns in four games and it's no wonder with 6-foot-4 receivers Jeff Samardzija (17 for 443) and Adrian Demko (12 for 199).  The Vikes have only run for 558 yards in four games but Valparaiso has 60 first downs so there's not room for complaint yet.  Carl Gioia is an all-state field goal kicker with 16-of-17 extra points and field goals from 25, 27 and 28 yards.  Valparaiso has allowed only 29 completed passes in four games and only Penn ran on Valpo.  Linebacker Nick Windsor (6-0, 230) and DT Chris Yaros (6-0, 213) are big run stoppers and Danny Wiggins (5-8, 155) is a top punt returner.  There are few weaknesses here.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN:  Chesterton has to control the ball 75 percent of the time because they cannot cover Valparaiso's receivers.  I'm seeing an early Trojan TD on the ground but Jason Renn will probably hit five TD passes and there isn't much the Trojans can do.  Expect a double-team on Trojan defensive end Nick Johnson and some early draw plays or screen passes to slow down Chesterton.  This is a mismatch.  The Trojans aren't that quick and all they can do is exploit Valpo's inexperienced run defense, if they can.  Renn is a strong thrower and can stretch the Trojan defense to a much greater extent than anyone they've played.  Valparaiso won this game 39-7 at Chesterton last year and this game will be similar.

OTHER WEEK 5 GAMES

Several games fall into the mismatch column this week.  Let's not embarrass them.  North Judson (4-0) will beat North Newton (0-4), ANDREAN (4-0) will beat Horace Mann (0-4) and Morton (3-1) has far too much for winless Gavit.  South Central should also take out Caston, although that's not really a mismatch.

Whiting (1-3) 33, Lake Station (1-3) 16

Lake Station can't deal with Whiting's passing attack.  They have not faced a strong air game yet and they don't have the skill players or speed to cover the Oilers.

Bishop Noll  (2-2) 20,  Clark (1-3) 8

Noll got going with a 50-6 win over Calumet last week.  Clark is a decent defensive team but they can't score.

Lake Central (1-3) 52, East Chicago (0-4) 21

LC is 1-3 but east Chicago's soft defense can't handle the Indians' physical strength.

Gary Roosevelt (2-2) 47, Wirt (2-2) 36

Here's an absolute track meet but Roosevelt has greater depth.

Munster (3-1) 24, Griffith (2-2) 16

Munster usually stops the option and they'll be able to keep the talented, run-oriented Panthers out of the end zone.

Rensselaer (3-1) 28, Kankakee Valley (2-2) 14

Rensselaer has a very powerful running game and KV can't handle that.

Wheeler (2-2) 21, River Forest (1-3) 12

Rover Forest had to go to OT to beat Lake Station. Wheeler has too much offense if they didn't get beat up at Nazareth Academy last week.

Jimtown (3-1) 35, New Prairie (2-2) 14

The Jimmies have too much on the ground for New Prairie, which is rebuilding on offense.

LOWELL (2-2) 34, Hammond (2-2) 27

Lowell's offensive line wears down Hammond for a come-from-behind win.

MERRILLVILLE (1-3) 26, Michigan City (2-2) 0

Michigan City may not gain 100 yards on Merrillville.

LaPORTE (2-2) 16, Hobart (1-3) 7

LaPorte's defenses have allowed just 44 points in four games.

Portage (4-0) 31, CROWN POINT (4-0) 17

Portage's offense is too much for the inexperienced Bulldog secondary.

Valparaiso (3-1) 42, Chesterton (4-0) 21

Chesterton cannot cover the Valpo wide receivers.


Long distance weather:  A change in the forecast has added a chance of rain with temps in the mid-60s.  A significant rain during the game would help Chesterton, Crown Point, Lake Station, Hobart and Lowell.